天山铝业：产业链一体化优势凸显，盈利能力稳健

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][10] Core Views - The company demonstrated a robust profit growth with a 64% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.4% [1][4] - The decline in quarterly net profit was primarily due to a drop in aluminum prices, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2024 at 19,550 yuan per ton, down 1,000 yuan per ton from the previous quarter. The company produced approximately 290,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the quarter, leading to a profit reduction of 260 million yuan due to falling prices [1][4] - The company benefits from a complete industrial chain setup, which has allowed it to maintain stable profitability despite fluctuations in alumina prices. The average price of alumina in Q3 2024 was 3,950 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan per ton from the previous quarter, and has further risen to 4,600 yuan per ton in Q4 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [1][4] - The company announced a mid-term profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 923 million yuan [1][4] - The company is focusing on solidifying its upstream resource base by developing overseas bauxite projects in Indonesia and Guinea, aiming to secure high-quality, low-cost bauxite resources to mitigate long-term price increases [1][4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 39.1 billion, 39.2 billion, and 39.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 0.2%, and 0.5% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 4.14 billion, 4.34 billion, and 4.57 billion yuan, with growth rates of 87.7%, 4.9%, and 5.2% [2][10] - The diluted EPS for the same period is expected to be 0.89, 0.93, and 0.98 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.5, 9.1, and 8.6 times [2][10]