思源电气：Q3业绩略超预期，国内海外双轮驱动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.41 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.49 billion RMB, up 29.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company is investing 300 million RMB in a new high-voltage intelligent switchgear production base, which is expected to support market expansion and meet future capacity demands [2]. - The company has a strong position in the domestic market, with significant shares in various segments of the power equipment sector, maintaining leading positions in bids for key projects [3]. - The overseas business has seen substantial growth, with contract liabilities increasing by 98% year-on-year to 2.24 billion RMB, reflecting a robust order backlog [4]. - Profitability metrics are improving, with a gross margin of 31.4% and a net margin of 14.6%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas revenue [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.24 billion RMB, a 29.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 600 million RMB, up 34.9% [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 31.4%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 14.6% [5]. Market Position - The company has maintained a leading market share in various segments, with bid amounts for combination electrical equipment, circuit breakers, and isolators at 10.8%, 20.5%, and 15.7% respectively [3]. - The domestic power grid investment has accelerated, with a 21.1% year-on-year increase in national grid project investments [3]. Growth Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 15.61 billion RMB, 19.19 billion RMB, and 23.53 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 23% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.06 billion RMB, 2.56 billion RMB, and 3.13 billion RMB, with growth rates of 32%, 24%, and 23% respectively [5].