Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has reported better-than-expected earnings, with a projected net profit growth of 140-145% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024, amounting to approximately 330-340 million USD [1]. - The growth in net profit is attributed to the normalization of the global footwear market and a significant increase in demand for the company's shoe products from brand clients [1]. - The company is balancing demand with order scheduling and has implemented an orderly overtime plan to support net profit growth, alongside steady capacity increases throughout the year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s manufacturing revenue growth for the first nine months of 2024 shows a positive trend, with monthly growth rates of 13%, -12%, 0%, +3%, +8%, +3%, +22%, +21%, and +27% [1]. - The report indicates that after previous years of pandemic and inventory destocking, the leading footwear supply chain is regaining its growth momentum [1]. Market Position - Adidas has raised its full-year revenue guidance, which is expected to benefit the company as a key supplier in Adidas' footwear supply chain [1]. - The report expresses optimism regarding Adidas' recovery, suggesting that the improved guidance reinforces the operational cycle of major brands and restores growth momentum [1]. Earnings Forecast - Based on the performance in Q1-Q3 2024, the earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 8.65 billion USD, 9.645 billion USD, and 10.935 billion USD for FY24-26 [1]. - The projected net profits for these years are 430 million USD, 480 million USD, and 530 million USD, respectively, which are higher than previous estimates [1]. - The expected EPS for FY24-26 is revised to 0.27 USD, 0.30 USD, and 0.33 USD per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 7X, 6X, and 6X [1].
裕元集团：业绩超预期，上调盈利预测