港股公司报告 | 公司点评 公司 25Q1 营收约 20.3 亿美元，同比+1.3%，其中制造业务同比+5.9%，零 售业务同比-5.4%； 3 月营收 6.6 亿美元，同比-0.7%，其中制造业务同比+3.5%，零售业务同比 -8.2%。 公司对中长期发展持乐观态度 根据 WFSGI 及麦肯锡最新行业报告，预计 2024 年至 2029 年，全球运动用 品行业有 6%年均复合增长率，市场规模有望在 2029 年达到 5480 亿美元。 裕元集团（00551） 证券研究报告 生产效率及人工成本拖累 25Q1 业绩 公司发布 25Q1 业绩预告 公司预告 25Q1 归母净利润将较 2024 年同期的 1 亿美元减少不超过 25%。 盈利降幅主要由于复杂多变的全球经济格局导致经营环境的波动，并造成 鞋履制造单位成本上升，进而对毛利率产生负面影响。具体包括： 1.生产效率下降：各个制造厂区的产能负载不均，以及新造产线及新设鞋 面加工厂爬坡进度不如预期，导致生产效率未达设定标准、无法如期降低 加班需求及其他相关成本； 2.人工成本上升：制造业务人数同比上升高单位数百分比，加上各地薪资 上涨，推高人工成本。而生产效率未 ...

裕元集团公告，根据对截至2025年3月31日止三个月的未经审核综合财务报表的初步检视，集团预期本 期间本公司拥有人应占溢利将较2024年同期的1亿美元减少不超过25%。溢利降幅主要由于全球经济格 局导致的经营环境波动及鞋履制造单位成本上升，包括生产效率下降和人工成本上升。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in manufacturing capacity utilization, achieving a 14-year high in operating profit margin (OPM) [6] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to increase by 3.7% to $8.182 billion, with a notable rise in manufacturing revenue by 11.1% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to rise by 42.8% to $392 million, with a net profit margin improvement of 1.3 percentage points to 4.8% [6] - The company is facing a tax dispute in Indonesia, which has impacted the net profit margin by approximately 0.5 percentage points, but recovery of funds is anticipated [6] - The retail segment has maintained a good profitability level despite a revenue decline of 8% [6] Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial data for the company includes: - Revenue (million USD): 2023: 7,890; 2024: 8,182; 2025E: 8,470; 2026E: 8,720; 2027E: 8,976 [6][10] - Net Profit (million USD): 2023: 275; 2024: 392; 2025E: 449; 2026E: 468; 2027E: 496 [6][10] - Fully Diluted EPS (USD): 2023: 0.17; 2024: 0.24; 2025E: 0.28; 2026E: 0.29; 2027E: 0.31 [6][10] - Gross Margin (%): 2023: 24.40%; 2024: 24.35%; 2025E: 24.35%; 2026E: 24.53%; 2027E: 24.67% [6][10] - Return on Equity (%): 2023: 6.48%; 2024: 8.84%; 2025E: 9.86%; 2026E: 10.02%; 2027E: 10.32% [6][10] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at HKD 12.86 on March 19, 2025, with a market capitalization of HKD 20,635 million [2] - The stock has experienced a 52-week price fluctuation between HKD 7.75 and HKD 18.40 [2] - The company has shown resilience in a challenging market environment, with a significant increase in manufacturing output and profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.182 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 392 million, which is a significant increase of 43% [3][5] - The manufacturing segment is operating at full capacity, with a revenue increase of 11.1% to USD 5.62 billion in 2024, driven by a recovery in the footwear market and improved production efficiency [3][5] - The retail segment experienced a decline in revenue by 8% to RMB 18.45 billion, primarily due to reduced foot traffic and store adjustments, although online sales grew by 16% [3][5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.890 billion - 2024: USD 8.182 billion - 2025E: USD 8.654 billion - 2026E: USD 9.082 billion - 2027E: USD 9.464 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2023: USD 275 million - 2024: USD 392 million - 2025E: USD 489 million - 2026E: USD 546 million - 2027E: USD 592 million [3][12] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 10 in 2023 to 5 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][12] Operational Efficiency - The manufacturing business achieved a gross margin increase to 19.9%, up by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced capacity utilization and operational efficiency [3][5] - Inventory turnover days for the manufacturing segment decreased to 51 days, indicating improved inventory management [3][5] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of approximately HKD 1.3 per share, with a payout ratio of 69% and a dividend yield of around 10% [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.2 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $390 million, up 43% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $5.6 billion in revenue, an 11% increase year-on-year, while the retail segment saw a revenue decline of 10% to $2.6 billion [1][5] - Manufacturing business orders are robust, with a significant increase in shipments and a narrowing decline in average selling price (ASP). The ASP for 2024 was $20.3, down 5% year-on-year, while shipments reached 260 million pairs, a 17% increase [2][5] - The retail business is showing signs of improvement, with a smaller revenue decline in Q4 and effective cost management strategies leading to stable profit margins. Online retail revenue grew by 16%, with Douyin sales doubling year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $8.2 billion and a net profit of $390 million. The manufacturing segment contributed $5.6 billion, while the retail segment accounted for $2.6 billion [1][5] - In Q4 alone, the company reported a revenue of $2.1 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 52% to $70 million due to increased operational costs and tax disputes [1][3] Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment's revenue for 2024 was $5.6 billion, with a shipment volume of 260 million pairs, reflecting a 17% increase. The ASP remained stable at $20.3 [2][5] - The manufacturing gross margin was 19.9%, with a capacity utilization rate of 93%. However, Q4 gross margin was pressured due to increased overtime and outsourcing costs, alongside a tax dispute in Indonesia [3][5] Retail Business - The retail segment's revenue for 2024 was $2.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, but the decline in Q4 was only 2%. The company managed to improve its gross margin to 34.2% through effective discount management [4][5] - The number of offline stores decreased to 3,448, with same-store sales down 17.1%. However, online sales showed resilience, particularly on platforms like Douyin [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.4 billion, $9.0 billion, and $9.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $454 million, $498 million, and $529 million [5][12] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 6.0, 5.5, and 5.2, with a dividend payout ratio of 69% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 10% [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.182 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 392 million, which is a significant increase of 43% [3][5] - The manufacturing business is operating at full capacity, with an increase in operational efficiency leading to a gross margin rise [3] - The retail segment is experiencing a decline in physical store sales but shows strong growth in online sales, contributing to an overall improvement in gross margin [3] - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and has a strong presence in the sports retail sector, indicating a robust position in the industry [3] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.890 billion - 2024: USD 8.182 billion - 2025E: USD 8.654 billion - 2026E: USD 9.082 billion - 2027E: USD 9.464 billion - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from USD 275 million in 2023 to USD 489 million in 2025E, and further to USD 592 million by 2027E [3][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 17.05 cents in 2023 to 30.49 cents in 2025E [3][12] Operational Efficiency - The manufacturing business achieved a capacity utilization rate of 93% in 2024, up from 79% in FY23, contributing to a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 19.9% [3] - The retail business saw a decline in physical store sales but a 16% increase in online sales, leading to a gross margin improvement of 0.5 percentage points to 34.2% [3] Dividend Policy - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of approximately HKD 1.3 per share, with a payout ratio of 69% and a dividend yield of about 10% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at HKD 13.28, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.2 billion for FY24, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase. Manufacturing revenue was USD 5.6 billion, up 11%, while retail revenue was RMB 18.5 billion, down 8% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin stood at 24.4%, with manufacturing gross margin at 19.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by strong demand for footwear orders and improved production efficiency [1]. - The company aims to leverage the "athleisure" trend and enhance its manufacturing capabilities through automation and R&D, focusing on sustainable growth in regions like Indonesia and India [3]. Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 390 million, a significant increase of 43% year-on-year [2]. - The footwear shipment volume reached 255 million pairs, marking a 17% increase, with Indonesia accounting for 54% of shipments, up 29% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) was USD 20.3, down 5% [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to balance volume and price for sustainable growth, while enhancing operational resilience and efficiency through rigorous cost management [3]. - The revenue forecasts for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are projected at USD 8.7 billion, USD 9.3 billion, and USD 10.0 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be USD 500 million, USD 550 million, and USD 620 million [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at HKD 13.28, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 8.2 billion for FY24, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase. Manufacturing revenue was USD 5.6 billion, up 11%, while retail revenue was CNY 18.5 billion, down 8% [1][2]. - The gross margin stood at 24.4%, with manufacturing gross margin at 19.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by strong demand for footwear orders and improved production efficiency [1]. - The company aims to leverage the "athleisure" trend and enhance its manufacturing capabilities through automation and R&D, focusing on sustainable growth in regions like Indonesia and India [3]. Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 390 million, a significant increase of 43% year-on-year [2]. - The footwear shipment volume reached 255 million pairs, marking a 17% increase, with Indonesia accounting for 54% of shipments, up 29% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) was USD 20.3, down 5% [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to balance volume and price for sustainable growth, while enhancing operational resilience and efficiency through rigorous cost management [3]. - The revenue projections for FY25-27 are USD 8.7 billion, USD 9.3 billion, and USD 10.0 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be USD 500 million, USD 550 million, and USD 620 million [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of $8.182 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $392 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.8% [2][4] - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, combined with an interim dividend of HKD 0.4 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 69% [2] - The manufacturing business saw a strong recovery with a revenue of $5.621 billion in 2024, up 11.1% year-on-year, driven by a significant rebound in global sports footwear orders [4][5] - Retail business revenue faced pressure, declining by 8.0% year-on-year to $1.845 billion, primarily due to reduced foot traffic in physical stores and a net decrease of 75 stores [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the manufacturing business's capacity utilization rate improved to 93%, up 14 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 19.9% [4] - The retail business's gross margin improved slightly to 34.2%, with a net profit of $49.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5] - The company expects revenue for 2025 to reach $8.493 billion, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.8% [6] Future Outlook - For the first two months of 2025, the manufacturing business revenue grew by 7.3%, while retail revenue declined by 4.3% [5] - The company anticipates a steady recovery in manufacturing business growth and a potential positive growth in retail business by the end of 2025 [5][6] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $465 million, $502 million, and $532 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.5%, 8.0%, and 6.1% [6]

投资建议 2024 年，受益于全球运动鞋履订单需求复苏及生产效率提升，公司制造业务订单及 盈利强劲复苏，零售业务受到国内消费环境影响，收入规模有所下滑。展望 2025 年，根 据公司披露的月度收益公告，2025 年 1-2 月，制造业务营收同比增长 7.3%，零售业务营 收同比下降 4.3%，我们预计 2025 年上半年公司制造业务恢复常态增长，零售业务或继续 有所承压，全年维度来看，预计制造业务稳健增长，零售业务有望实现正增长。预计公 司 2025-2027 年营业收入分别为 84.93/90.03/94.56 亿美元，同比增长 3.8%/6.0%/5.0%； 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 纺织制造 裕元集团（00551.HK） 买入-A(维持) 2024 年业绩弹性释放，2025 年 1-2 月制造业务营收增长 7% 2025 年 3 月 13 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 3 月 11 日，公司披露 2024 年年报，2024 年，公司实现收入 81.82 亿美元，同比增 长 3.7%，实现归母净利润 3.92 亿美元，同比增长 42.8%。公司董事会建议派发末期股息 ...