KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Soochow Securities·2024-10-27 15:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1207.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 608.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.0% and 15.0% respectively. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit were 388.5 billion yuan and 191.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 13.2% [2] - The company is accelerating the offline direct sales of Moutai liquor, while the price of the series liquor 1935 is slightly adjusted under pressure. The revenue from liquor in Q3 2024 grew by 15.8%, aligning with the annual revenue growth target of 15% [2][3] - The company is optimizing its channel structure and increasing the focus on high-priced products in offline channels to enhance demand. The overseas sales in Q3 2024 grew by 17% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration compared to last year [3] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 1734.1 billion yuan, 1900.8 billion yuan, and 2054.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 859.5 billion yuan, 947.1 billion yuan, and 102.4 billion yuan for the same years [3] - The current market value corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22.8, 20.7, and 19.1 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Financial Data - The total revenue for 2022 was 127554 million yuan, which increased to 150560 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 173407 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.53%, 18.04%, and 15.17% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 62717 million yuan in 2022, increasing to 74734 million yuan in 2023, and is expected to be 85949 million yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.55%, 19.16%, and 15.01% respectively [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1558.85 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1958223.94 million yuan [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 8.24, and the total shares outstanding are 1256.20 million [5]