XJZY(002332) 国泰君安·2024-10-27 15:18Investment Rating - Maintains "Overweight" rating with a target price of 15.18 RMB [3][4] Core Views - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 3.237 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.01% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.42% to 530 million RMB [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.099 billion RMB, down 1.80% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising 12.17% to 190 million RMB, meeting expectations [3] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 remain at 0.69/0.85/1.04 RMB [3] - Profitability improved with Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin rising to 54.63%, up 3.38 percentage points YoY, and Q3 gross margin at 54.22%, up 3.79 percentage points YoY [3] - The impact of centralized procurement on the formulation sector is gradually diminishing, with the sector growing 10.6% YoY in H1 2024 [3] - New products are expected to drive growth, with gynecological and family planning products expected to turn positive in Q3, and anesthesia and muscle relaxant products maintaining growth [3] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue is projected at 4.345 billion RMB, a 5.4% increase YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to rise 21.0% to 681 million RMB [8] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at 5.008 billion RMB, a 15.2% increase YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to grow 22.8% to 837 million RMB [8] - 2026E revenue is projected at 5.799 billion RMB, a 15.8% increase YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to rise 23.5% to 1.033 billion RMB [8] - ROE is expected to improve from 9.7% in 2023A to 14.8% in 2026E [8] Market and Valuation - Current stock price is 12.70 RMB, with a 52-week range of 8.87-13.78 RMB [5] - Market capitalization stands at 12.563 billion RMB [5] - P/E ratio for 2024E is 18.43, decreasing to 12.16 by 2026E [8] - P/B ratio is currently 2.1, with a net debt ratio of -19.73% [6] Product and Market Developments - Overseas API subsidiary Newchem faced revenue pressure due to customer destocking and exchange rate impacts, but growth is expected to resume as destocking nears completion [3] - The company has made progress in regulatory markets, with approvals from FDA, ANVISA, and PMDA, and WHO PQ certification for certain products [3] - A new innovative drug, Omecamtiv Mecarbil Sodium, was submitted to NMPA for approval in August 2024, expected to enhance the anesthesia and muscle relaxant product line [3] Industry and Growth Catalysts - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to benefit from faster drug approval processes and stronger-than-expected product sales [3] - Long-term growth is supported by the gradual resolution of centralized procurement impacts and the introduction of new products [3]