贵州茅台：2024年三季报点评：经营稳如磐石，价值布局窗口

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of 2600 CNY, while the current price is 1558.85 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 120.78 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 60.83 billion CNY, up 15.0% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 38.85 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.3%, and net profit was 19.13 billion CNY, increasing by 13.2% [1]. - The report highlights that the revenue growth is stable, driven primarily by non-standard products, with a notable increase in international sales, which grew by 35.7% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 150.56 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.0%. The net profit is expected to be 74.73 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 19.2% [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 68.51 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 [9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to remain high at around 92.0%, with a net profit margin of 52.5% [9]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q3, Moutai's revenue from its main product, Moutai liquor, grew by 16.3%, while series liquor saw a growth of 13.1% [1]. - The wholesale channel experienced a growth of 9.7%, while direct sales increased by 23.5%, indicating a shift towards more direct consumer engagement [1]. Cash Flow and Profitability - The report notes a decline in operating cash flow by 60.2% in Q3, attributed to changes in payment schedules from distributors [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by pricing adjustments and the introduction of lower-priced products [1]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue growth target of around 15% for the year, with expectations of a gradual slowdown in growth rates in the coming years [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% over the next three years, reflecting confidence in future growth [1].