CTS Logistics(603128) 华创证券·2024-10-27 15:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Huamao Logistics (603128) [1] Core Views - Huamao Logistics achieved a non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 170 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26%, indicating an improvement in profitability [1] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%, with Q3 revenue at 5.82 billion yuan, up 51.5% year-on-year and 23.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Gross profit for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, with a gross margin of 10.9%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The decline in gross margin is attributed to the tight supply of international logistics trunk line capacity, leading to significant fluctuations in freight rates and trunk line costs [1] - The company is expanding its overseas logistics network and enhancing its end-to-end integrated logistics service capabilities, with new operational points established in Kazakhstan, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Nigeria [1] - Huamao Logistics has committed to a high dividend payout ratio, planning to distribute no less than 60% of the distributable profit annually from 2023 to 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of 50% in the first half of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2024 was 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, with Q3 net profit at 170 million yuan, down 21% year-on-year but up 24% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2024 was 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, with Q3 non-GAAP net profit at 170 million yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year but up 26% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's revenue for 2024E is forecasted to be 16.582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is forecasted to be 649 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [2] Strategic Initiatives - Huamao Logistics is focusing on both domestic and international markets, establishing a two-way communication and collaborative marketing mechanism to meet customer needs for domestic and international business extensions [1] - The company is enhancing product stability and coverage, with the shipping headquarters continuing to promote the contract capacity cooperation model and consolidating core capacity in air freight routes such as Europe and America [1] Valuation and Target Price - The report adjusts the 2024 net profit forecast to 650 million yuan (originally 730 million yuan) and maintains the 2025 and 2026 net profit forecasts at 820 million yuan and 900 million yuan, respectively [1] - The target price is set at 7.43 yuan, representing a 25% upside potential from the current price, with a 2024 expected dividend yield of 5.0% [1]