Yanjing Brewery(000729) 华创证券·2024-10-27 15:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer with a target price of 14 yuan [1] Core Views - Yanjing Beer achieved revenue of 12.846 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 4.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 19.84% to 530 million yuan [1] - The company's flagship product, U8, continues to show strong growth momentum, with contract liabilities increasing by 22% year-on-year to 1.2 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [1] - Yanjing Beer's cost control and efficiency improvements have driven profit growth, with a net profit margin of 11.0% in Q3 2024, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's reform initiatives and product upgrades are expected to further enhance profitability, with potential for mid-to-long-term profit growth [1] Financial Performance - Yanjing Beer's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 48.0%, with a ton cost of 2,185 yuan per kiloliter, both remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The company's sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 13.9%/10.9%/1.7% respectively, with sales and R&D expense ratios improving year-on-year [1] - The actual tax rate decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.0% in Q3 2024, contributing to profit growth [1] - The minority interest ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 17.5%, reflecting improved performance of wholly-owned subsidiaries [1] Market and Industry Analysis - The beer industry faced weak demand in Q3 2024, with national beer production declining by 10% and 3.3% in July and August respectively, before rebounding by 1.4% in September [1] - Yanjing Beer outperformed the industry with a 0.2% year-on-year increase in sales volume to 1.142 million kiloliters in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's average selling price remained stable at 4,202 yuan per kiloliter in Q3 2024, with a slight slowdown in price growth due to increased sales efforts [1] Future Outlook - Yanjing Beer is expected to reduce losses in Q4 2024, with a projected net profit margin of 8-9% for the full year, compared to the industry leader's 13% in 2023 [1] - The company's focus on the mid-to-high-end market segment, particularly the 8-10 yuan price range, is expected to drive future growth [1] - Yanjing Beer's reform initiatives and cost optimization efforts are anticipated to continue driving profitability improvements [1]