SIRIO(300791) 国海证券·2024-10-27 16:00Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's domestic business is under pressure, while overseas markets continue to show strong growth [1] - The company is expected to achieve its revenue target for 2024, but the net profit target may face challenges due to domestic business pressures [2] - Overseas regions, particularly the Americas and Asia-Pacific, are expected to outperform domestic markets, with the Americas benefiting from the acquisition of BF and cross-synergy sales [3] - The company's gross margin saw a slight year-on-year fluctuation, with minority shareholder losses narrowing quarter-on-quarter but still impacting profitability [3] - The company is a leading CDMO player in the health supplement industry, with a global supply chain and strong R&D capabilities [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.85 billion, up 1.63% year-on-year [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 30.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.40 billion [3] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 29.63%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.65 percentage points [3] - The company's net profit margin attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was 8.07%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.69 percentage points [3] Market Data - The current stock price is RMB 26.60, with a 52-week price range of RMB 21.22-43.38 [2] - The company's total market capitalization is RMB 6,274.22 million, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 5,170.45 million [2] - The company's total shares outstanding are 235.87 million, with 194.38 million shares in circulation [2] - The average daily trading volume is RMB 170.23 million, with a monthly turnover rate of 2.17% [2] Growth and Profitability Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 43.13 billion in 2024, RMB 49.27 billion in 2025, and RMB 56.17 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 14%, and 14% respectively [5][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 3.60 billion in 2024, RMB 4.50 billion in 2025, and RMB 5.60 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 25%, and 25% respectively [5][6] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.53 in 2024, RMB 1.91 in 2025, and RMB 2.37 in 2026 [5][6] - ROE is expected to increase from 14% in 2024 to 18% in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 17.41x in 2024, 13.95x in 2025, and 11.20x in 2026 [5][6] - The P/B ratio is forecasted to be 2.44x in 2024, 2.24x in 2025, and 2.04x in 2026 [6] - The P/S ratio is expected to decrease from 1.45x in 2024 to 1.12x in 2026 [6] Operational and Financial Metrics - The company's total asset turnover ratio is expected to improve from 0.77 in 2024 to 0.83 in 2026 [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to remain stable at around 55% from 2024 to 2026 [8] - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from RMB 5.59 billion in 2024 to RMB 8.44 billion in 2026 [8]