Goldcard(SZ:300349) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-27 19:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" with a target price raised to 18.00 CNY from the previous 16.07 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with short-term pressure anticipated on the residential gas business, while the industrial gas and digital water sectors are expected to develop steadily [3][5]. - The residential gas business is expected to face short-term challenges due to delivery confirmation rhythms, but long-term growth is anticipated with ongoing renovations of old communities and large-scale equipment updates [5]. - The industrial gas sector is projected to maintain steady growth due to effective implementation of related policies, while the digital water sector is expected to achieve stable development by leveraging opportunities in loss management and water conservation [5]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.232 billion CNY (down 2.16% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 298 million CNY (down 0.03% year-on-year) [5]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 42.15%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin industrial gas business and cost reduction measures [5]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 13.65%, reflecting a slight improvement in profitability [5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 1.01 CNY, 1.20 CNY, and 1.39 CNY respectively, from previous estimates of 1.20 CNY, 1.44 CNY, and 1.67 CNY [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.203 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 0.9% [6]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a 32% increase over the past month and a 41% increase over the past three months [9]. - The stock has a market capitalization of 5.978 billion CNY and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.16 based on the current price [6]. Valuation Comparison - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 20.13 for 2024E and 16.17 for 2025E [11].