SINOTRANS(601598) 华创证券·2024-10-27 23:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China Ocean Shipping (601598) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.83 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [1] - The company plans to repurchase and increase its holdings of A-shares to maintain its value, with a repurchase amount between 271 million and 542 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on transformation and reform, emphasizing overseas network layout and resource optimization [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 788 million yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year and down 26% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 85.9 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year, while Q3 revenue was 29.5 billion yuan, up 18.3% year-on-year [1] - Operating costs for Q1-Q3 2024 were 81.7 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year, with Q3 costs at 28.2 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross profit margin was 4.3%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Structure Summary - In the professional logistics segment, contract logistics, project logistics, and chemical logistics volumes increased by 6.4%, 11.6%, and 17.8% respectively for Q1-Q3 2024 [1] - In freight forwarding, the volumes for sea freight, air freight, rail freight, and vessel agency services saw year-on-year increases of 13.7%, 16.9%, 38.3%, and 11.9% respectively [1] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics business experienced a decline of 36.3% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2024 [1] Investment Recommendations - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 3.8 billion, 4.34 billion, and 4.66 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.52, 0.59, and 0.64 yuan [1] - The target price is set at 7.25 yuan, representing a potential upside of 35% from the current price of 5.38 yuan [1]