Joincare(SH:600380) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-27 23:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to the impact of centralized procurement of Leflunomide, while the health product segment continues to grow significantly. The company's innovative pipeline is actively advancing, with several potential innovative products expected to enhance performance [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue: - 2022A: 17,143 million - 2023A: 16,646 million (down 2.9%) - 2024E: 16,088 million (down 3.4%) - 2025E: 17,505 million (up 8.8%) - 2026E: 19,432 million (up 11.0%) [2] - Net Profit (attributable to parent): - 2022A: 1,503 million - 2023A: 1,443 million (down 4.0%) - 2024E: 1,509 million (up 4.6%) - 2025E: 1,648 million (up 9.2%) - 2026E: 1,872 million (up 13.6%) [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 0.80 - 2023A: 0.77 - 2024E: 0.81 - 2025E: 0.88 - 2026E: 1.00 [2] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022A: 11.5% - 2023A: 10.5% - 2024E: 10.1% - 2025E: 10.2% - 2026E: 10.7% [2] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): - 2023A: 14.47 - 2024E: 13.84 - 2025E: 12.67 - 2026E: 11.15 [2] Performance Insights - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 11.899 billion (down 6.0%) and a net profit of 1.112 billion (up 2.6%), which is in line with expectations. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 3.664 billion (down 6.8%) and a net profit of 335 million (up 25.0%) [2][5]. - The respiratory segment is under short-term pressure due to centralized procurement, while the health product segment is experiencing strong growth driven by increased online promotion [2][5]. Innovation Pipeline - The company has received registration approvals for several innovative products, including inhalation powder and suspension solutions, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth. The anti-influenza drug TG-1000 is anticipated to be submitted for NDA in August 2024, with potential sales exceeding 1 billion [2][5].