Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Great Wall Motor with a target price raised from HK17.00, indicating an upside potential of 18.2% from the current price of HK$14.38 [2][3]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motor's 3Q24 core earnings were in line with estimates, with revenue about 5% higher than previous forecasts, although net profit was impacted by unexpected foreign exchange losses and VAT refund delays [2]. - The company is expected to achieve overseas sales growth of 29% YoY in FY25E, supported by new models and increased local content [2]. - A decline in sales volume in China is anticipated for FY24E, but the introduction of seven new models in FY25E could revitalize sales [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 173,212 million in FY23A to RMB 204,470 million in FY24E, reflecting an 18.0% YoY growth [1]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly from RMB 7,021.6 million in FY23A to RMB 12,768.3 million in FY24E, marking an 81.8% increase [1]. - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 20.0% in FY24E, with a slight narrowing expected in FY26E due to increased competition in overseas markets [2]. Earnings Revisions - FY25E net profit forecast has been revised up by 7% to RMB 14 billion, while FY24E net profit has been cut by 5% due to the earnings miss in 3Q24 [2][5]. - Sales volume forecast for FY25E has been increased from 1.3 million units to 1.36 million units, indicating a 3% growth in China [2]. Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16.5x in FY23A to 9.1x in FY24E, reflecting improved earnings expectations [1][7]. - The dividend yield is expected to rise from 2.2% in FY23A to 3.9% in FY24E, indicating a more attractive return for investors [1][7].
长城汽车：Overseas, new models to support FY25 after in-line 3Q24 core earnings