Core Viewpoint - Great Wall Motors (02333) has shown a strengthening trend, with a recent stock price increase of 2.10% to HKD 12.62, indicating potential bullish momentum in the market [1]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has successfully broken through the MA10 (HKD 12.36) and MA30 (HKD 11.94), forming a bullish alignment, while the MACD indicator has issued a buy signal [1]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting an increase in upward momentum, although the RSI at 55 indicates a neutral zone, and other indicators show overbought conditions, hinting at possible short-term volatility [1]. - The stock is facing a key resistance level at HKD 13.3, with a potential challenge to the yearly high of HKD 13.9. Important support levels are at HKD 12.1 and a stronger support at HKD 11.7 [2]. Trading Opportunities - For investors optimistic about Great Wall Motors' breakout, options include the JPMorgan call warrant (15880) with a leverage of 4.7 times and an exercise price of HKD 14.9, which has a relatively low implied volatility [2]. - Another option is the credit warrant (13639) with a leverage of 4.9 times and an exercise price of HKD 14.88, noted for its lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, offering better cost-effectiveness [2]. - Products expiring in November, such as UBS call warrant (13608) and JPMorgan call warrant (14482), with an exercise price of HKD 18.82 and effective leverage of 4.5 times, have shown a recent increase of 9.52% [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - Great Wall Motors is positioned as the leader in the domestic hard-core off-road vehicle market and is expanding its growth through international markets [4]. - The company has a complete product line for hard-core off-road vehicles, with significant market share and growth potential in both domestic and overseas markets [4][3]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Great Wall Motors is a well-known manufacturer of SUVs and pickups, with a focus on hard-core off-road vehicles and a commitment to independent research and development of core automotive components [19]. Historical Development - From 2011 to 2016, the SUV market in China experienced rapid growth, with Great Wall Motors leading the market through its Haval brand [2][21]. - Between 2017 and 2020, the overall vehicle market saw a decline, impacting the company's performance as competition intensified [2][39]. - Since 2021, the company has seen a recovery in sales, particularly in the hard-core off-road segment and through international expansion [2][52]. Market Analysis - The market share of hard-core off-road vehicles in China remains low compared to developed countries, indicating significant growth potential [3]. - Great Wall Motors holds a dominant position in the domestic hard-core off-road market, with market shares exceeding 50% in recent years [4]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2023 to 2027, with net profits expected to reach 171.8 billion yuan by 2027 [5][4]. - In 2024, the company achieved a record net profit of 126.92 billion yuan, reflecting a strong recovery and growth trajectory [74]. Product Development - Great Wall Motors has launched several new models under its Tank brand, which have been well-received in the market, contributing to its leadership in the hard-core off-road segment [61]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its R&D capabilities, particularly in smart driving and electric vehicle technologies [83].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was CNY 40,019,080,365.54, a decrease of 6.63% compared to the same period last year[9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 45.60% to CNY 1,751,178,715.35 from CNY 3,227,751,398.16 in the previous year[9]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share fell by 44.74% to CNY 0.21 per share[9]. - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 was CNY 40.02 billion, a decrease of 6.5% compared to CNY 42.86 billion in Q1 2024[30]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 was CNY 1.75 billion, a decline of 45.5% from CNY 3.22 billion in Q1 2024[31]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were CNY 0.21, down from CNY 0.38 in Q1 2024[32]. - Other comprehensive income after tax for Q1 2025 was CNY 1.75 billion, compared to a loss of CNY 266.83 million in Q1 2024[32]. - The company reported a financial expense of CNY -1.03 billion in Q1 2025, a significant change from CNY 95.39 million in Q1 2024[30]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative at CNY -8,980,143,836.11, indicating a significant decline in cash inflow[9]. - In Q1 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was -8,980,143,836.11, a decline compared to -2,634,303,567.26 in Q1 2024, indicating a worsening operational cash flow situation[35]. - Cash inflow from investment activities in Q1 2025 was 38,801,508,093.58, significantly higher than 5,123,580,358.69 in Q1 2024, reflecting a strong recovery in investment returns[36]. - The net cash flow from financing activities in Q1 2025 was 302,946,866.44, down from 2,333,728,048.33 in Q1 2024, suggesting reduced financing activity[37]. - The total cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025 amounted to 28,629,990,718.44, compared to 32,223,097,139.26 at the end of Q1 2024, indicating a decrease in liquidity[37]. - Cash received from sales of goods and services in Q1 2025 was 43,097,218,726.83, a decrease from 44,777,215,836.01 in Q1 2024, showing a decline in revenue generation[35]. - The cash outflow for purchasing goods and services in Q1 2025 was 41,735,893,116.59, an increase from 38,872,240,287.30 in Q1 2024, indicating rising operational costs[35]. - Cash inflow from recovering investments in Q1 2025 was 38,470,334,530.94, a substantial increase from 5,100,000,000.00 in Q1 2024, highlighting improved investment recovery[36]. - The cash outflow for investment activities in Q1 2025 was 28,751,296,916.89, compared to 7,846,690,783.62 in Q1 2024, reflecting increased capital expenditures[36]. - The impact of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents in Q1 2025 was positive at 23,702,049.12, contrasting with a negative impact of -30,707,669.87 in Q1 2024[37]. - The cash inflow from financing activities in Q1 2025 totaled 4,207,812,856.63, down from 7,931,975,869.95 in Q1 2024, indicating a reduction in financing sources[37]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 212,547,066,299.77, down 2.38% from the previous year[9]. - As of March 31, 2025, the total current assets of Great Wall Motors amounted to CNY 126.52 billion, a decrease of 5.4% from CNY 133.54 billion on December 31, 2024[24]. - The total non-current assets reached CNY 86.02 billion, an increase of 2.2% compared to CNY 84.18 billion as of December 31, 2024[26]. - The total liabilities decreased to CNY 114.40 billion from CNY 122.57 billion, indicating a reduction of 6.7%[27]. - The company's total assets as of March 31, 2025, were CNY 212.55 billion, down from CNY 217.72 billion, representing a decrease of 2.4%[26]. - The company's long-term equity investments increased to CNY 11.72 billion from CNY 11.55 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.5%[26]. - The company's inventory rose to CNY 32.61 billion from CNY 25.44 billion, an increase of 28.0%[24]. - The company's total liabilities to total assets ratio improved to 53.8% from 56.3%, indicating a stronger financial position[27]. - The company reported a total debt of CNY 129.89 billion as of March 31, 2025, compared to CNY 138.73 billion as of December 31, 2024[28]. - Total non-current liabilities decreased to CNY 15.49 billion in Q1 2025 from CNY 16.16 billion in Q4 2024[28]. - The company's total equity increased to CNY 82.66 billion as of March 31, 2025, up from CNY 78.99 billion as of December 31, 2024[28]. Shareholder Information - The largest shareholder, Baoding Innovation Great Wall Asset Management Co., holds 5,115,000,000 shares, representing 59.74% of the total shares[15]. - HKSCC Nominees Limited, the second largest shareholder, holds 2,303,112,411 shares, accounting for 26.90% of the total shares[15]. - China Securities Finance Corporation holds 196,889,089 shares, which is 2.30% of the total shares[15]. - The top ten shareholders include various entities, with the smallest holding being China Construction Bank at 14,312,681 shares, or 0.17%[16]. - There are no reported changes in the lending or borrowing of shares among the top ten shareholders[18]. - The company has announced plans for a stock option incentive program and convertible bond conversion, with details to be published in early 2025[19]. - The company is actively managing its stock incentive plans, including the repurchase and cancellation of restricted stock[19]. - The total number of unrestricted shares held by the top ten shareholders is significant, indicating strong institutional support[16]. - The company has not disclosed any related party transactions among the top shareholders[16]. - The shareholder structure shows a concentration of ownership, with the top two shareholders holding over 86% of the total shares[15]. Operational Insights - The company is undergoing a product upgrade cycle, which has led to a decrease in sales volume and increased investment in direct sales system construction[12]. - Non-recurring gains and losses totaled CNY 282,131,369.01 for the period[10]. - The weighted average return on equity decreased to 2.17% from 4.60% in the previous year[9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (02333) based on its robust growth potential and competitive positioning in both domestic and international markets [2][7]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motors is expected to achieve steady revenue and profit growth driven by its expansion in overseas markets and successful model upgrades domestically. The company has significantly increased its sales volume and revenue from international markets, particularly in regions like Russia and South America [6][16]. - The company is projected to have a total sales volume of 1.23 million vehicles in 2024, with revenues reaching 2022 billion yuan, primarily fueled by overseas market growth [6][16]. - The introduction of new models and upgrades, such as the Haval Dragon and Wei brand Blue Mountain, has strengthened the company's competitiveness in the domestic market, leading to increased sales and market share [47][62]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Great Wall Motors are as follows: 2023 - 173.21 billion yuan, 2024 - 202.20 billion yuan, 2025E - 243.55 billion yuan, 2026E - 286.23 billion yuan, and 2027E - 328.88 billion yuan, with growth rates of 26%, 17%, 20%, 18%, and 15% respectively [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 7.02 billion yuan in 2023, 12.69 billion yuan in 2024, 15.68 billion yuan in 2025, 18.60 billion yuan in 2026, and 21.69 billion yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates particularly in 2024 and 2025 [5][6]. - The company aims to achieve a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 by 2025, indicating a potential upside of 69% from current levels [7]. Domestic and International Market Dynamics - The report highlights that Great Wall Motors has successfully penetrated various international markets, with significant sales growth in Russia, Australia, and Brazil. The company is expected to maintain a strong presence in these regions, with projected sales of 55,000 vehicles in 2025, a 21% increase year-on-year [6][44][46]. - In the domestic market, the successful upgrades of existing models have led to a resurgence in sales, with the Haval Dragon and Wei brand Blue Mountain models showing strong performance post-upgrade [47][62]. Competitive Positioning - Great Wall Motors is actively expanding its product lineup beyond SUVs and pickups to include sedans and MPVs, enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive market [7]. - The company is also focusing on optimizing its cost structure, with a projected decrease in expense ratios, which is expected to further enhance profitability [20][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 58% from the current price [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 16.7% year-on-year, reaching a total revenue of 202.0 billion RMB in 2024, while the net profit surged by 80.8% to 12.69 billion RMB, marking a record high [2][4]. - A strategic partnership was established with Yushu Technology to explore advancements in embodied intelligence, focusing on robotics and smart manufacturing [1][4]. Sales Performance - In March, the company's total sales reached 98,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.3% but a month-on-month increase of 26% [3]. - The sales breakdown shows a decline in Haval brand sales by 2.5% year-on-year, while WEY brand sales increased by 30.0% [3]. Financial Projections - The financial forecast indicates a projected revenue growth rate of 26% for FY2023, followed by 17% in FY2024, and a net profit growth of 81% for FY2024 [5][11]. - The report outlines a steady gross margin of 20% and a net profit margin of 6% for the upcoming years [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.0, indicating a potential upside of 58% from the current price of HKD 11.4 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 16.7% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching RMB 202.2 billion in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 80.8% to RMB 12.7 billion, marking a record high [2][4]. - A strategic partnership was established with Yushu Technology to explore advancements in robotics and intelligent manufacturing, focusing on applications in industrial robotics and the integration of off-road vehicles with robotic technology [4]. Sales Performance - In March, the company's total sales reached 98,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.3% but a month-on-month increase of 26%. The Haval brand saw a 2.5% decrease in sales, while the WEY brand experienced a 30% increase [3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, cumulative sales were 257,000 units, down 6.7% year-on-year. The Haval brand's sales fell by 8.4%, while the WEY brand's sales rose by 38.7% [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue growth rate of 26% for FY2023, followed by 17% in FY2024, and a gradual decline to 14% by FY2025. Net profit is expected to rebound significantly in FY2024 with an 81% growth [5][11]. - Key financial metrics include a projected net profit margin of 6% and a return on equity (ROE) of 16% for the upcoming years [5][11].

Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, is RMB 12,692,204,172.58[5] - The undistributed profits of the parent company as of December 31, 2024, amount to RMB 43,272,339,677.50[5] - The proposed cash dividend is RMB 0.45 per share (tax included), subject to approval at the 2024 annual general meeting[5] - Total operating revenue for 2024 reached RMB 20,219,547.23 million, an increase of 16.73% compared to RMB 17,321,207.68 million in 2023[24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 1,269,220.42 million, representing an 80.76% increase from RMB 702,155.97 million in 2023[24] - Operating profit for 2024 reached RMB 1,392,086.33 million, a 93.32% increase compared to RMB 720,096.66 million in 2023[25] - Basic earnings per share increased by 81.71% to RMB 1.49 from RMB 0.82 in 2023[28] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders rose by 15.31% to RMB 7,898,782.41 million compared to RMB 6,850,061.44 million in 2023[25] - The weighted average return on equity increased to 17.20%, up by 6.59 percentage points from 10.61% in 2023[28] - The total revenue for 2024 reached RMB 202.20 billion, reflecting a growth from RMB 173.21 billion in 2023[113] Operating Activities - Net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was RMB 2,778,262.63 million, up 56.49% from RMB 1,775,378.90 million in 2023[24] - The net cash flow from operating activities rose by 56.49% to RMB 27.78 billion, driven by increased cash receipts from sales[115][116] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 13,584,191,238.31 in the fourth quarter[30] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for 2024 were RMB 928,436.73 million, reflecting a 15.27% increase from RMB 805,425.26 million in 2023[24] - The total R&D investment was ¥10.45 billion, representing 5.17% of total revenue, with 49.59% of this amount capitalized[138] - The company applied for over 28,000 patents, with 17,000 granted, covering key technologies in new energy and intelligent systems[140] - The number of R&D personnel was 23,308, constituting 27.45% of the total workforce, indicating a strong emphasis on technical expertise[139] Sales and Market Expansion - In 2024, the company achieved a total sales volume of 1.2345 million vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.37%, with total revenue reaching RMB 202.20 billion, an increase of 16.73%[40] - The company’s new energy vehicle sales reached 322,200 units in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 25.65%, with a domestic penetration rate of 43.99%[42] - The company’s overseas sales reached 454,100 units, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 44.61%, contributing to a cumulative overseas sales total exceeding 1.8 million vehicles[44] - The company aims to accelerate its internationalization strategy, targeting a second million sales milestone in overseas markets[185] - Great Wall Motors has expanded its sales network to over 1,400 overseas channels, covering more than 170 countries and regions[84] Technological Advancements - The company launched the new generation intelligent driving system Coffee Pilot Ultra and the Coffee OS 3, enhancing user experience through advanced technology[41] - The company is focusing on technological advancements and new product development to drive future growth[19] - The Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving system was introduced, featuring 27 smart sensors and enhancing safety standards significantly[77] - Great Wall Motors established a comprehensive Hi4 hybrid technology system, launching three new hybrid architectures to meet diverse consumer needs[78] - The company is enhancing its technological capabilities with 5G and AI digital twin technology for comprehensive transformation[185] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit report issued by Deloitte Huayong CPA has a standard unqualified opinion[7] - The company emphasizes that the forward-looking statements in the report do not constitute a commitment to investors[6] - The company has confirmed that there are no non-operational fund occupations by controlling shareholders or related parties[8] - The company maintains a diversified product portfolio, including traditional and new energy vehicles, and continues to focus on technological innovation and global expansion strategies[68] Employee and Operational Efficiency - The total number of employees increased to 84,915 in 2024 from 82,439 in 2023, with employee costs accounting for 9.47% of total revenue, down from 10.60%[59] - The company is implementing a long-term incentive mechanism to transform employees from "workers" to "partners," promoting sustainable development[112] Financial Position - Total assets at the end of 2024 amounted to RMB 21,726,622.37 million, a 7.95% increase from RMB 20,127,028.86 million in 2023[25] - The total liabilities at the end of 2024 were RMB 13,826,999.49 million, a 4.15% increase from RMB 13,276,150.46 million in 2023[25] - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 138.27 billion, an increase from RMB 132.76 billion in 2023, while total equity rose to RMB 79.00 billion from RMB 68.51 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio decrease from 193.79% to 175.03%[54] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on enhancing product quality and expanding in three key areas: smart new energy, advanced off-road vehicles, and high-quality international markets[180] - The forecast for the passenger car market in China for 2025 is projected to be 28.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%[179] - The expected sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 is 16 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4%[179]

Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2024 is RMB 12,692,204,172.58[2] - The undistributed profits at the end of 2024 amount to RMB 43,272,339,677.50[2] - The proposed cash dividend is RMB 0.45 per share (including tax), subject to shareholder approval[2] - Total operating revenue for 2024 reached RMB 20,219,547.23 million, an increase of 16.73% compared to RMB 17,321,207.68 million in 2023[29] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 1,269,220.42 million, representing an 80.76% increase from RMB 702,155.97 million in 2023[29] - Operating profit for 2024 reached RMB 1,392,086.33 million, a 93.32% increase compared to RMB 720,096.66 million in 2023[30] - Basic earnings per share increased by 81.71% to RMB 1.49 from RMB 0.82 in 2023[33] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders rose by 15.31% to RMB 7,898,782.41 million compared to RMB 6,850,061.44 million in 2023[30] - The weighted average return on equity increased to 17.20%, up by 6.59 percentage points from 10.61% in 2023[33] - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 202.20 billion for 2024, up from RMB 173.21 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16.76%[67] Operational Highlights - The company has not identified any significant risks that could materially affect its operations during the reporting period[4] - The audit report issued by Deloitte shows a standard unqualified opinion[4] - The company has confirmed that there are no non-operational fund occupations by controlling shareholders or related parties[5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 13,584,191,238.31 in the fourth quarter[35] - The total liabilities at the end of 2024 were RMB 13,826,999.49 million, a 4.15% increase from RMB 13,276,150.46 million in 2023[30] - The company has not engaged in any significant asset acquisitions or disposals during the reporting period[60] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for 2024 amounted to RMB 928,436.73 million, a 15.27% increase from RMB 805,425.26 million in 2023[29] - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 15.27% to RMB 9.28 billion, reflecting its commitment to innovation and technology advancement[53] - The company applied for over 28,000 patents, with 17,000 granted, covering key technologies in new energy and intelligent systems[145] - The company has established R&D organizations in nine cities in China and set up branches in seven countries, focusing on localized R&D capabilities to support product development and market launch[107] Market Expansion and Sales - In 2024, the company achieved a total sales volume of 1.2345 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%, with total revenue reaching RMB 202.20 billion, up 16.73% from the previous year, and net profit of RMB 12.69 billion, an increase of 80.76%[45][53][54] - The company’s penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic passenger cars reached 43.99%, with total sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 25.65% to 322,200 units in 2024[47] - The company’s overseas sales reached 454,100 units in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 44.61%, with cumulative overseas sales exceeding 1.8 million units[49] - The company has expanded its sales network to over 1,400 overseas channels, covering more than 170 countries and regions[89] - The company plans to achieve overseas sales of over 1 million vehicles by 2030, focusing on differentiated layouts of new energy products based on local market characteristics[90] Technological Advancements - The company launched the new generation intelligent driving system Coffee Pilot Ultra and the new intelligent space system Coffee OS 3 in 2024, enhancing user experience through advanced technology[46] - The company introduced the Hi4-Z hybrid technology system, achieving a maximum system power of 715 kW and over 200 km pure electric range in off-road conditions[48] - The Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving system was introduced, featuring 27 smart sensors and enhancing safety standards significantly[82] - Great Wall Motors is focusing on high-efficiency electric drive products and has signed a contract for the development of RISC-V automotive-grade chips to enhance vehicle intelligence[86] - The company is establishing full-stack self-research capabilities around smart driving, smart cockpit, and smart services to enhance user experience[190] Financial Health and Investments - The company’s total assets and liabilities will be closely monitored to ensure sustainable growth and financial health moving forward[24] - The company’s current assets increased to RMB 133.44 billion, while current liabilities rose to RMB 122.23 billion as of December 31, 2024[56] - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 138.27 billion, an increase from RMB 132.76 billion in 2023, while total equity rose to RMB 79.00 billion from RMB 68.51 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio decrease from 193.79% to 175.03%[59] - The company’s investment activities resulted in a net cash outflow of ¥23.30 billion, primarily due to increased purchases of financial products[147] Employee and Talent Management - The total number of employees increased to 84,915 as of December 31, 2024, compared to 82,439 in 2023, with employee costs accounting for 9.47% of total revenue, down from 10.60%[64] - The number of R&D personnel was 23,308, making up 27.45% of the total workforce, with a significant portion holding advanced degrees[144] - The company is focused on building a strong talent pipeline to support long-term growth and stability[117] Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - The company is committed to high-quality development and innovation in smart new energy technologies, aiming for sustainable growth through a diversified product matrix[73] - The company is committed to promoting green supply chains and achieving carbon neutrality by reducing carbon emissions during production[190] - The company aims to maintain a long-term perspective, emphasizing quality management and sustainable development in its operations[185]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) with a target price of HKD 17.36, representing a potential upside of **30.3%** from the current price of HKD 13.32 [1][6] Core Views - Great Wall Motor's 2024 full-year and Q4 performance was largely in line with expectations, driven by strong sales of the Tank brand and robust export performance [2] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 12.4-13.0 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of **76.60%-85.14%**, with non-GAAP net profit rising **94.47%-106.88%** [6] - The Tank brand saw a **42.12%** year-on-year increase in sales, reaching 231,000 units, contributing significantly to the company's profitability [6] - Great Wall Motor's high-end and intelligent vehicle strategy is progressing smoothly, with the company dominating the Chinese off-road vehicle market and successfully expanding into the high-end segment [6] - The company's global expansion, including production bases and R&D centers in Russia, Thailand, India, and Brazil, supports its growth prospects [6] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 137.34 billion in 2022 to RMB 261.44 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of **13.0%** [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 8.27 billion in 2022 to RMB 18.04 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of **18.9%** [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.96 in 2022 to RMB 2.11 in 2026, with a CAGR of **18.9%** [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from **19.4%** in 2022 to **20.5%** in 2026, driven by higher sales of premium models and improved product mix [14] Market and Industry Analysis - Great Wall Motor sold 1.23 million vehicles in 2024, including 321,800 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of **22.82%** [6] - Overseas sales reached 453,100 units, up **43.39%** year-on-year, accounting for a significant portion of total sales [6] - Sales of vehicles priced above RMB 200,000 reached 309,600 units, a year-on-year increase of **37.13%**, representing **25.1%** of total sales [6] - The company plans to launch several new models and technology platforms in 2025, including the Tank 500 Hi4-Z, which was officially launched on January 1, 2025, and the Tank 400/700 Hi4-Z, which will feature enhanced power performance and pure electric range [6] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 17.36 is based on the company's strong performance in high-end and intelligent vehicle segments, as well as its global expansion strategy [6] - The potential upside of **30.3%** reflects the market's confidence in the company's growth prospects and its ability to maintain profitability through premium product offerings and export growth [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors with a target price raised to HKD 18.0, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price [4][6]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motors achieved a total sales volume of 1.233 million vehicles in 2024, remaining flat year-on-year, marking the ninth consecutive year of sales exceeding one million units [2][3]. - The company is focusing on high-quality market share growth, with a significant increase in December 2024 sales by 20.3% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from the Haval and WEY brands [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion into international markets, with overseas sales reaching 453,000 units in 2024, accounting for 37% of total sales, and an expected growth of 26% in export sales to 570,000 units by 2025 [3][4]. Sales Performance - In December 2024, Haval brand sales reached 83,000 units, up 27.2% year-on-year, while WEY brand sales surged by 150.8% to 8,808 units [2]. - The report notes a decline in sales for the Ora brand by 52.7%, while the Tank brand saw a 26.4% increase in sales [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects sales revenue growth of 26% for 2024, reaching RMB 219.01 billion, followed by an 18% growth in 2025 to RMB 259.42 billion [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly by 95% in 2024, reaching RMB 13.69 billion, and continue to grow to RMB 16.95 billion in 2025 [5][9]. - The report anticipates a steady gross margin of 21% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit margins improving to 7% by 2025 [5][9]. Product Development - Great Wall Motors plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Haval H7 and new Tank models, which will feature the advanced Coffee Pilot Ultra driving system [3][4]. - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge in the high-end and off-road vehicle segments through accelerated deployment of intelligent driving technologies [3].