Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors [1][2] Core Views - Great Wall Motors' Q3 2024 core earnings align with estimates, and overseas sales growth is expected to support profitability in FY25 [1] - The company plans to launch seven new models in FY25, which may positively impact sales in the Chinese market [1] - The report anticipates a 29% year-on-year increase in overseas sales, targeting 580,000 units in FY25 [1][2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 3.4 billion, which was 5.7 billion lower than expected due to unexpected foreign exchange losses and delays in VAT refunds [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 have been raised from 1.3 million units to 1.36 million units, with a 3% growth expected in China due to new model launches [2] - The net profit forecast for FY25 has been increased by 7% to RMB 14 billion, while the FY24 net profit estimate has been reduced by 5% [2] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 14.00 to HKD 17.00, reflecting improved market sentiment [2][4] Performance Metrics - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 204,470 in FY24 to 236,000 in FY25, and further to 258,850 in FY26 [3][10] - Net profit is expected to increase from 12,768 in FY24 to 14,023 in FY25, and then to 13,887 in FY26 [3][10] - The gross margin is projected to be 20.0% in FY24, improving to 20.3% in FY25, before slightly declining to 19.7% in FY26 [8][10] Market Position - Great Wall Motors aims to enhance its overseas market presence through local assembly plants and expects stable profit margins in overseas markets despite increasing competition by FY26 [1][2] - The company is focusing on launching new models in the electric vehicle segment, which is seen as crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the evolving automotive landscape [1][2]
长城汽车：在海外 ， 新模式将在 24 季度核心收益上线后支持 FY25