昊海生科：短期，集采价量转换蓄势中；创新品种值得期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first three quarters of 2024 at 2.075 billion, 341 million, and 321 million RMB respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 4.69%, 4.31%, and 5.53% [2]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a slight revenue increase of 0.22%, but a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items by 13.13% and 22.02% respectively, indicating performance below expectations [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of sales in the ophthalmology sector, particularly with the anticipated approval of innovative products [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company’s Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 106 million RMB, down from 122 million RMB in Q3 2023, primarily due to price reductions from national procurement and increased R&D expenses of 63 million RMB, up 18.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s ophthalmology products are undergoing a new round of national or provincial procurement, leading to price declines that offset the sales growth of hyaluronic acid products [3]. Product Pipeline and Growth Potential - The company is expected to see significant sales growth in mid-to-high-end artificial lenses, supported by internal structural optimization [3]. - The innovative products in the pipeline, such as hydrophobic injection lenses and multi-focal lenses, are anticipated to drive future growth [3]. Aesthetic Medicine Sector - The aesthetic medicine segment, driven by the innovative hyaluronic acid product "Hai Mei," achieved revenue of 417 million RMB in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 51% year-on-year growth [3]. - The upcoming fourth-generation organic cross-linked hyaluronic acid product "Hai Mei Yue Bai" is expected to enhance marketing efforts and contribute to higher profit growth [3]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 12.50%, 16.88%, and 15.93% to 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.8 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years have been revised down by 14.30%, 20.21%, and 20.12% to 441 million, 507 million, and 613 million RMB respectively [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenue growth rates and profit margins, indicating a robust long-term growth potential despite short-term challenges [6][4].