Sinocare(300298) EBSCN·2024-10-28 01:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.182 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 255 million yuan, down 19.71% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.049 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.05%, but the net profit dropped 59.44% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations [1]. - The traditional blood glucose monitoring (BGM) business is experiencing stable growth, with an estimated contribution of approximately 200 million yuan from Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) sales. The company has established a strong position in the industry over the past two decades, and the BGM business is expected to maintain steady growth in 2024 [1]. - The CGM products, which were officially launched in 2023, are expected to see significant sales growth, with a sales target of 300 to 500 million yuan for 2024 and potential profitability in 2025. The company has been developing CGM products since 2008 and is positioned to benefit from the industry's expansion [1]. - The company is also making strides in international markets, with its CGM products receiving CE certification in 2023 and plans to submit an FDA application in 2024. The overseas subsidiaries are showing signs of improvement, and profitability is anticipated for the year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.182 billion yuan, a 4.83% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 255 million yuan, down 19.71% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.049 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.05%, and the net profit was 58 million yuan, down 59.44% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue growth rate for the years 2022 to 2026 is projected to be 19.15%, 44.26%, 7.87%, 10.37%, and 10.77% respectively, while the net profit growth rates are expected to be 300.56%, -34.00%, 18.63%, 27.62%, and 27.70% respectively [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024 to 2026 has been revised down to 340 million, 430 million, and 550 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 24.1%, 17.9%, and 12.5% from previous estimates. Despite this, the company is recognized as the leading domestic brand in blood glucose monitoring, and international expansion into mature markets is anticipated [2].