MANGO(300413) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-28 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a steady development in its core business, with expectations for quality content to drive future performance recovery [2] - Membership numbers have reached new highs, significantly boosted by popular content such as "Singer 2024," which added 18.53 million users to the Mango TV international app [3] - The company is expected to achieve a target of 260 million users for its international app in 2024, while domestic app platform members have exceeded 70 million [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, operating revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, a decline of 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies [2] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting net profits of 1.918 billion yuan, 2.180 billion yuan, and 2.381 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.03 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.27 yuan [2] Content and Innovation - The company is set to release several high-quality shows in Q4 2024, including "Goodbye Lover 4" and "The Alley Family," which are expected to drive membership and advertising revenue growth [4] - The integration of AI-generated content (AIGC) in production is anticipated to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with the launch of the "Shanhai Short Drama Intelligent Production Platform" [4] Key Financial Metrics - The company's projected operating revenue for 2024 is 16.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 33.2%, while the net margin is projected at 12.0% [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 is estimated at 26.1 times, decreasing to 21.1 times by 2026 [5]