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当升科技:2024年三季报点评:三元依旧亮眼,铁锂大规模放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met market expectations, with revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 460 million yuan, down 69% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the shipment of ternary cathodes decreased by over 10% quarter-on-quarter, while lithium iron phosphate shipments doubled [2]. - The profitability of ternary cathodes remained stable, with a non-GAAP profit of over 10,000 yuan per ton, significantly higher than the industry average [2]. - Operating cash flow increased quarter-on-quarter, and capital expenditures saw a significant rise [2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 670 million, 830 million, and 1.03 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 65% in 2024, but growth of 23% and 25% in the following years [3]. - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 34x, 27x, and 22x [3]. - The company is expected to maintain profitability above the market average despite increased industry competition [3].