顾家家居：盈利短期承压，期待家具消费补贴效果显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujia Home Furnishing (603816.SH) [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 2.4% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with net profit down 9.5% and net profit excluding non-recurring items down 10.7% [2] - The company expects continued growth in exports while facing short-term pressure in domestic sales due to weak consumer demand [2] - The gross margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 31.9% in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin export business [2] - The company is actively implementing its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy to enhance marketing and logistics capabilities, which is expected to support future growth [2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q3 2024, revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were down 6.9%, 19.9%, and 16.9% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 13.6 billion yuan, with net profit at 1.36 billion yuan [2] Operational Analysis - The company’s export business is expected to continue growing despite a slowdown in the overall furniture export market [2] - Domestic sales are under pressure, with a decline in foot traffic in home furnishing stores noted in Q3 [2] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 29.8%, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s expense control measures have been relatively effective, with a sales expense ratio of 14.0% in Q3 2024, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.27 yuan, 2.57 yuan, and 2.88 yuan, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2]