诺思格：临床CRO领跑者，赋能创新药研发历程

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating, estimating a reasonable PE of 50x for 2024, corresponding to a market cap of 7.6 billion CNY [2] Core Views - The company is a leading clinical CRO in China, benefiting from policy support for innovative drug development and the increasing demand for efficient, cost-effective clinical research services [1] - The company's full-chain business integration and high-quality services are expected to drive sustainable growth, supported by its diversified service offerings and strong management team [1] - The clinical CRO industry is poised for growth due to favorable policies, rising R&D investments, and the increasing complexity of drug development, which drives demand for specialized CRO services [1][2] Industry Overview - The global pharmaceutical market is projected to grow from 14,950 billion USD in 2022 to 20,908 billion USD by 2030, with China's market expected to expand from 15,541 billion CNY to 26,245 billion CNY over the same period [33][34] - The global CRO market is forecasted to grow from 821.1 billion USD in 2023 to 1,064.5 billion USD by 2026, with China's CRO market expected to reach 597.9 billion CNY by 2026, driven by increasing R&D expenditures and policy support [42][43] - The average cost of developing a new drug has risen from 1.3 billion USD in 2013 to 2.01 billion USD in 2021, while the return on investment has declined, highlighting the need for CROs to improve efficiency and reduce costs [45][46] Company Strengths - The company offers a comprehensive range of clinical CRO services, including clinical trial operations (CO), site management (SMO), biostatistics, and clinical pharmacology, with a strong focus on innovation and quality [1][50] - The company has a robust management and scientific team with extensive international experience, including former FDA experts, enhancing its ability to provide strategic and regulatory guidance [24][25] - The company has implemented equity incentive plans to motivate core employees, with performance targets set for 2023-2025, aiming for a 20%, 44%, and 72.8% growth in non-GAAP net profit compared to 2022 [1][25] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 326 million CNY in 2018 to 721 million CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 17.2%, while net profit increased from 48 million CNY to 163 million CNY over the same period, with a CAGR of 27.4% [26][27] - The company's gross margin and net margin have remained stable, with CO services contributing 49% of revenue in 2023, and SMO services showing strong growth with a 21% YoY increase in 2023 [28][52] - The company's new contract value reached 976 million CNY in 2023, a 20.01% increase YoY, driven by demand from domestic pharmaceutical and biotech companies [30][31] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing complexity of drug development and the growing demand for specialized CRO services, with projected revenue of 799 million CNY, 920 million CNY, and 1,073 million CNY for 2024-2026, respectively [2][6] - The company plans to expand its overseas business, enhance operational efficiency, and strengthen its industrial foundation, supported by the synergistic development of its six major business segments [2][20] - The company's high-margin emerging businesses, such as clinical pharmacology and consulting services, are expected to drive future growth, with a focus on optimizing its business structure and creating new profit growth points [58][59]