贵州茅台：第三季度茅台酒增速快于整体，全年15%收入增速可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][8][11] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue grew by 15.6% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 13.2%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 123.12 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year [2][5] - The growth in revenue was driven by the strong performance of Moutai liquor, which outpaced the growth of series liquor. Moutai liquor revenue in Q3 2024 was 32.559 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.32% [2][5] - The company maintains a revenue growth target of 15% for the full year, with a projected revenue of 173.9 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 15.5% increase year-on-year [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan. The gross margin for Q3 was 91.0%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [2][5] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 7.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.2% year-on-year, indicating some pressure on cash flow [6] - The company has revised down its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to anticipated industry pressures, projecting revenues of 191.6 billion yuan and 206.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][7]