YTL(SZ:000960) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-28 04:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.213 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.283 billion yuan, an increase of 17.18% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is the world's largest refined tin producer, with a domestic market share of 47.92% and a global market share of 22.92% as of 2023 [1][7] - The company aims to focus on upstream resource expansion and is expected to benefit from the rising demand for tin in the semiconductor and new energy sectors, leading to a gradual increase in tin prices [1][8] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.438 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.60%, and a net profit of 484 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.10% [1][5] - The company’s production of non-ferrous metals totaled 277,100 tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4.65%, including tin production of 64,200 tons, copper production of 105,000 tons, and zinc production of 106,400 tons [1][6][7] - The company’s net cash flow from operating activities reached 2.499 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.74% [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is 38.919 billion yuan, 40.941 billion yuan, and 41.317 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.1%, 5.2%, and 0.9% respectively [2][8] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 1.873 billion yuan, 2.437 billion yuan, and 2.605 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.0%, 30.1%, and 6.9% respectively [2][8] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.14 yuan, 1.48 yuan, and 1.58 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][8]