ENN-NG(SH:600803) Soochow Securities·2024-10-28 04:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 98.725 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.491 billion yuan, up 12.51% year-on-year [2] - The retail gas price gap is recovering, and direct sales of gas are showing stable growth. The core profit for the first three quarters decreased by 18.35% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in platform trading gas volume and prices [2][3] - The demand for natural gas is steadily increasing, supported by an integrated layout that helps the company maintain stable growth. The domestic natural gas demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2023 to 2030 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 147,717 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.69% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.458 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 23.03% year-on-year [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected at 1.76 yuan per share for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 10.88 [1][8] Business Segment Analysis - Natural gas business: Platform trading gas volume and retail gas volume increased by 10.7% and 4.8% respectively in the first three quarters, with domestic and international platform trading gas volumes growing by 14.2% and 4.9% respectively [2][3] - Engineering construction and installation business: The number of new residential users connected decreased by 19.1% year-on-year [2] - Comprehensive energy business: Sales volume increased by 21.4% year-on-year to 296.68 billion kWh [2] - Infrastructure operation business: The receiving station's unloading volume reached 1.73 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [2] Dividend and Valuation - The company plans to distribute dividends of no less than 1.03 yuan and 1.14 yuan per share for 2024 and 2025, corresponding to dividend yields of 5.4% and 5.9% [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.46 billion, 6.06 billion, and 7.82 billion yuan respectively [3]