贵州茅台：业绩符合预期，全年目标有望达成

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 1844.64 CNY, reflecting a potential upside from the last closing price of 1558.85 CNY [1][2]. Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, achieving total revenue of 123.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.83 billion CNY, up 15.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its annual revenue target of 15% growth, supported by strong shareholder returns through share buybacks and continuous dividends [1][2]. - The revenue growth forecast for 2024-2026 is projected at 16%, 11%, and 10% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 11% [2]. Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 101.13 billion CNY and 19.39 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.9% and 24.4% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 91.53%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 52.19%, down by 0.9 percentage points [1][5]. - The company reported a diluted EPS of 68.54 CNY for 2024, with corresponding PE ratios of 23x, 20x, and 18x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. Market Position - Guizhou Moutai is expected to outperform the market, with a projected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [7]. - The company has a strong market presence with 2,122 domestic and 106 international distributors as of the end of Q3 2024, reflecting a net increase of 42 and 0 distributors respectively since the beginning of the year [1].