2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.16）：缩量反弹 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.13）：风险偏好 下降>>--2025-06-13 <<策略日报（2025.06.12）：窄幅震 荡>>--2025-06-13 <<策略日报（2025.06.11）：沪指站上 3400>>--2025-06-11 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债高开低走，尾盘几乎收平。我们认为股市波动率仍 在低位，基本面的疲弱将限制上涨的高度，因此未来波动率的抬升更可能 是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益于避险资金的流入的判断。后续展望： 在地缘冲突加剧背景下，随着股市波动率可能抬高，资金避险需求或使得 债券重拾涨势。 A 股：市场低开反弹，三大指数缩量上涨。市场全天成交额 1.24 万 亿，较前一日缩量 0.26 万亿，近 3400 只个股上涨，超 1500 只个股下跌。 我 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The prices of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biodiesel have increased, while refrigerant prices remain high [3][5][30] - The demand for lightweight and high-performance materials is expected to rise due to advancements in the low-altitude economy and robotics [5][26] - The electronic chemicals sector is experiencing growth driven by technological breakthroughs and material import substitution [13][16] Summary by Sections 1. Subsector Tracking - Biodiesel and SAF prices have continued to rise, with SAF priced at $1955 per ton (up 3% week-on-week) and biodiesel at 8033 RMB per ton (up 1.36% week-on-week) [3][10][49] - Refrigerant prices are stable, with R22 at 36000 RMB per ton and R32 at 51500 RMB per ton [4][11] - High-performance fibers and lightweight materials are gaining attention, particularly in the context of robotics and the low-altitude economy [4][26] 2. Key Products and Price Trends - The report tracks various chemical new materials, noting price changes for products like PEEK, UHMWPE, and carbon fiber [10][11][26] - Carbon fiber prices have stabilized after a decline, with potential demand growth linked to new technologies [26][28] 3. Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals sector is characterized by a high degree of specialization and technical barriers, with a focus on materials for semiconductor manufacturing [16][19] - The domestic semiconductor materials market is expected to grow faster than the global market, with a projected CAGR of 10% from 2023 to 2024 [19][22] 4. Renewable and Modified Plastics - The demand for renewable plastics is increasing, with a notable rise in the recycling rate of plastics from 4.8% in 2018 to 10% in 2021 [51] - Special engineering plastics are seeing growing demand in automotive and aerospace applications [51] 5. Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 0.20% during the week of June 9-15, while the overall market showed mixed performance [61][64] - The report highlights the strong performance of the petrochemical sector, which rose by 3.31% [61][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including Junshi Bioscience, Hualan Biological Engineering-B, and others [3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the market, with a 1.13% increase, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 0.25 percentage points. The focus is on the potential of innovative drugs and the CD73 target in cancer immunotherapy [5][26]. - CD73 is highlighted as a promising target for tumor immunotherapy, with several products in clinical research stages, including small molecules and monoclonal antibodies [4][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" for companies such as Junshi Bioscience, Hualan Biological Engineering-B, and others, indicating strong potential in the pharmaceutical sector [3]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a 1.13% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.25 percentage points. Sub-sectors like innovative drugs and vaccines performed well, while traditional Chinese medicine and blood products lagged [32][40]. Company Dynamics - Companies like Lepu Medical and Sunshine Nuohua have made significant announcements regarding product approvals and clinical trials, indicating active development in the sector [33][36]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of the CD73 target in cancer treatment, with several leading candidates in clinical trials, including ATG-037 and Oleclumab, which are showing promising early results [21][25].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a comprehensive rise, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The weak fundamentals are expected to limit the height of the rise, suggesting that future volatility may lead to downward adjustments, benefiting the bond market from inflows of risk-averse capital [14][6] Group 2: A-Share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3400, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%. The total market turnover was 1.28 trillion, a decrease of 0.17 trillion from the previous day, with over 3000 stocks rising. Given the weak fundamentals, the probability of a bull market driven by volume is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward [17][2] - Investors are advised to take profits on some positions and shift to lower-yielding sectors such as dividends, agriculture, and technology, which are considered better options [18][17] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones rose by 0.25%, the Nasdaq by 0.63%, and the S&P 500 by 0.55%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields are seen as a looming threat over major assets, with potential buying opportunities emerging post-recession narratives. The long-term U.S. Treasury issuance has cooled, with rates briefly exceeding 5% [22][6] - The U.S. stock market is currently in a phase of head-and-shoulders consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term positions and wait for better buying opportunities [22][6] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1859, a decrease of 27 basis points from the previous close. The RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive impacts from U.S.-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows strong technical signs, with the previous high of 7.42 likely marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [26][6] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.07%, with coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while oils and ferroalloys lagged. The overall technical structure of the Wenhua Commodity Index remains in a bearish trend, suggesting a cautious approach [31][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the pharmaceutical industry, with specific sub-industry ratings indicating a neutral stance for biopharmaceuticals and other pharmaceutical sectors [4]. Core Insights - The industry is showing signs of stabilization and is expected to continue its recovery, with the CXO sector experiencing a revenue decline in 2024 but a rebound in Q1 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a decrease in per capita productivity and fixed asset turnover in 2024, indicating operational challenges [6][31]. - Demand is stabilizing with a slight recovery in orders, while capacity construction is slowing down [7][41]. - The onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to improve liquidity and boost investment in the sector [7][49]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 & 2025 Q1 Review - The CXO sector's revenue for 2024 was 897.20 billion, a 3.86% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 137.56 billion, down 23.05% [14]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue reached 223.46 billion, a 12.48% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 50.69 billion, up 74.67% [14]. 2. Operational Efficiency - In 2024, per capita revenue was 746,000, down 3.97%, and per capita profit was 114,400, down 23.14% [6][31]. - Fixed asset turnover decreased to 1.91 times, a 13.24% decline year-on-year, reflecting reduced operational efficiency [6][36]. 3. Demand and Orders - Contract liabilities and advance payments for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 68.91 billion and 72.62 billion, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.10% and 9.54% [6][37]. 4. Capacity and Workforce - The construction of new capacity is slowing, with ongoing projects valued at 144.20 billion in 2024, a 6.01% decrease year-on-year [41]. - The total number of employees in the sector was 120,261 in 2024, a slight increase of 0.12% [41][47]. 5. Investment Outlook - The report suggests a medium to long-term positive outlook for the CXO sector, driven by improving domestic and international demand [7][65]. - Key areas of focus include the impact of Federal Reserve policies, changes in investment trends, and the recovery of overseas demand [7][65]. 6. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch include: - **泓博医药**: Specializes in small molecule drug design, with a strong focus on AI-assisted drug development [68]. - **皓元医药**: Offers integrated services in drug development and production, with increasing overseas revenue [72]. - **阳光诺和**: Focuses on generic CRO services while expanding into innovative drug development [76]. - **诺思格**: Provides comprehensive clinical CRO services, benefiting from the expanding clinical trial market [81].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the computer industry, but it indicates a neutral rating for the computer software sub-industry [3]. Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is experiencing rapid advancements, with significant policy developments and cost reductions expected to accelerate commercialization [5][6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of the "golden triangle" collaboration model among autonomous driving companies, manufacturers, and ride-hailing service providers for successful Robotaxi deployment [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotaxi Policy and Regulations - Since 2023, China has been enhancing its Robotaxi-related policies, establishing a comprehensive framework for autonomous vehicle operation, including safety guidelines and responsibility allocation [5][12]. - Major cities like Beijing, Wuhan, and Shanghai have initiated public road trials for unmanned vehicles, with specific regulations implemented to clarify accident liability [5][12]. 2. Cost Reduction and Commercialization - The total lifecycle operating cost of Robotaxi is categorized into vehicle manufacturing, safety operation, and capacity operation costs, with a clear trend towards cost reduction [6][16]. - Significant reductions in hardware costs have been observed, with the BOM cost of the seventh-generation Robotaxi from Xiaoma Zhixing decreasing by 70%, and Baidu's sixth-generation model price dropping from 480,000 yuan to 204,600 yuan [6][18]. - The report predicts that by 2026, the cost per kilometer for Robotaxi services will drop to 2.1 yuan, making it competitive with traditional taxi services [21][23]. 3. Commercialization Progress - Major Robotaxi companies are rapidly expanding their operations, with Waymo reporting a service volume of 250,000 rides per week and Baidu's Robotaxi achieving 100% unmanned operation [7][27]. - The report emphasizes the collaborative ecosystem formed by autonomous driving technology companies, vehicle manufacturers, and ride-hailing platforms, which is crucial for the commercialization of Robotaxi services [24][27]. 4. Market Outlook - The global market for Robotaxi is projected to reach 824.9 billion yuan by 2030, with a penetration rate of 31.8% in China, indicating substantial growth potential [23][25]. - The report recommends investment in companies such as Wanma Technology, Hongsoft Technology, and Ruiming Technology, which are well-positioned to benefit from the rapid advancements in the Robotaxi sector [36].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for commodity funds, particularly due to the rise in gold prices, which led to a 3.02% increase in commodity fund performance [21][51]. Core Insights - The A-share market saw a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3348.37, down 0.57%. Notably, the pharmaceutical, comprehensive, and non-ferrous metal sectors showed significant gains of 1.78%, 1.41%, and 1.26% respectively, while the computer, machinery, and communication sectors experienced declines of -3.02%, -2.48%, and -2.31% [4][9]. - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.10%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.36%. The materials sector led gains with a 6.08% increase, while the consumer staples sector fell by 1.36% [10][17]. - The U.S. stock market indices, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, all experienced declines of approximately -2.47% to -2.61% [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Major Asset Market Overview (a) Equity - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57% and notable sector performances varying widely [4][9]. (b) Bonds - The report highlights a net monetary injection of 460 billion yuan through central bank reverse repos. The yields for 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.45%, 1.50%, and 1.72% respectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 4.15 basis points [24][25]. (c) Commodities - The commodity market saw varied performance with crude oil down 0.74% and gold prices rising significantly, leading to a 3.79% increase in domestic gold prices and a 4.75% increase in COMEX gold [33][38]. (d) Foreign Exchange - The report notes fluctuations in currency values against the yuan, with the U.S. dollar depreciating by 0.20% while the euro appreciated by 0.96% [40][42]. 2. Fund Market Overview (a) New Fund Establishments - A total of 26 new funds were established this week, including 21 equity funds and 5 fixed-income funds, with significant sizes reported for West China Li De Monthly Fund (4.156 billion) and China Aviation Investment Grade Green Index Fund (5.990 billion) [43][44]. (b) Fund Performance - The report indicates that all major fund categories, except for equity funds which saw a slight decline of 0.14%, recorded positive returns, with commodity funds leading at 3.02% due to rising gold prices [48][51]. (c) Fund Size and Quantity - As of May 23, 2025, there are 12,676 open-end public funds with a total size of 32.18 trillion yuan, where equity funds account for 51.53% of the total number [45][47].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the overall food and beverage industry, but it highlights individual stock recommendations with ratings such as "Buy" and "Increase" for certain companies [3][26]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a 1.3% decline this week, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan classification. The sub-sectors of other alcoholic beverages, pre-processed foods, and seasoning products saw gains of 8.9%, 3.4%, and 2.2% respectively, while the liquor, health products, and baked goods sectors faced declines of 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.1% [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of new consumption trends, particularly in the mass consumer goods sector, where discount stores, snack wholesale, and membership supermarkets are becoming mainstream channels. Companies like Mingming and Wancheng are expanding their store counts significantly, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [5][21]. - The report notes that the liquor sector is currently facing short-term emotional impacts due to policy changes, but the fundamental business outlook remains stable. Major liquor companies are managing supply and pricing effectively, with the price of Feitian Moutai at 2150 RMB per box, reflecting a slight decrease [4][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's overall performance is characterized by a recent decline, with specific sub-sectors showing varied performance. The top-performing stocks include Kuaijishan (+31.4%) and Guyu Longshan (+13.7%), while the worst performers include Anji Foods (-10.3%) and Knight Dairy (-10.0%) [4][15]. 2. Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor index fell by 2.82% this week, influenced by new regulations that discourage alcohol consumption in government settings. However, the actual impact on core consumption scenarios remains limited, as government consumption accounts for less than 5% of the market [20]. 3. Mass Consumer Goods - The report highlights the changing landscape of consumer goods, with a focus on new channels and product categories that cater to evolving consumer preferences. The emphasis is on health-conscious products and value-for-money offerings, with companies like Kuaijishan and Baijiu Co. launching innovative products to attract younger consumers [5][21][22]. 4. Beer Sector - The beer index increased by 0.98%, with production data indicating a 4.8% year-on-year growth in April 2025. The report anticipates strong performance in the second quarter due to seasonal demand and promotional policies [9][23]. 5. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Luzhou Laojiao (Buy), Shanxi Fenjiu (Increase), and Dongpeng Beverage (Buy), among others, based on their growth potential and market positioning [3][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the outdoor sports sector, highlighting high growth potential and favorable market conditions for brands in this space [4]. Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has commenced, with domestic brands performing exceptionally well. The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see structural opportunities due to new channels and products, benefiting brands with strong assets [3]. - The manufacturing sector is stabilizing, with leading manufacturers expected to enhance their market share due to their strong risk resilience. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff policy dynamics for long-term investment opportunities [3][7]. - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing sustained growth, driven by increasing participation in sports and fitness activities, as well as policy support. The report notes that outdoor apparel is a promising sub-sector within the broader apparel market [4]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.57%, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed the index with a decline of only 0.11% [11]. - The report highlights the performance of specific stocks, with notable gains in companies like Langsha Co., which saw a weekly increase of 31.91% [17]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales data shows a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in April, with specific categories such as gold and silver jewelry experiencing a significant rise of 25.3% [20][21]. - The report tracks raw material prices, noting that the Cotlook A index for cotton was 13,812, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the previous week [23]. - Export data from Vietnam indicates a 14.77% year-on-year increase in textile and apparel exports for March, suggesting robust demand in international markets [31].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral," indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index [27]. Core Insights - The SW Electronics sector experienced a decline of 2.17% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by only 0.18% [11]. - The semiconductor sector, particularly in Taiwan and Philadelphia, has shown signs of a pullback due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [11]. - The report highlights that the DRAM spot price for DDR3 4Gb increased to $1.08 as of May 23, indicating a positive trend in memory prices [18]. - Flash memory prices also saw slight increases, with MLC 64Gb rising by $0.11 to $4.97 and MLC 32Gb increasing by $0.06 to $2.75 [19]. Company Announcements - TCL Technology announced a major asset restructuring report [5]. - Weir Group is planning to issue H shares to enhance its international strategy and financing capabilities [5]. - XiDi Micro plans to increase capital in its wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong by $30 million to support its expanding business [6]. - ST Hengtai is in the process of applying to revoke its stock delisting risk warning [7]. - Guokai Micro is planning a significant asset restructuring through share issuance and cash payments [7]. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the SW Electronics sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.56% year-to-date, with a total decline of 3.90% since the beginning of 2025 [11]. - The report also tracks the performance of various electronic sub-sectors, with integrated circuit packaging and consumer electronics components showing the largest declines [11]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of price trends in the panel market, with the price of a 32-inch LCD TV panel remaining stable at $39.00 [22].