MANGO(300413) Huaan Securities·2024-10-28 06:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit due to changes in corporate income tax policies, with Q3 2024 revenue at 3.318 billion yuan, down 7.14% year-on-year, and net profit at 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year [1] - The company is leveraging high-quality variety shows to drive membership conversion, with a significant increase in active users and membership numbers [1] - The introduction of the Mango AI model is expected to enhance content production, benefiting short dramas and advertisements [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.14% - Operating profit for Q3 2024 was 459 million yuan, down 7.32% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.4%, and the gross margin was 29.8% [1] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 150.7 billion yuan, 163.1 billion yuan, and 173.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected net profit of 20.7 billion yuan, 23.6 billion yuan, and 25.0 billion yuan [2][4] User Engagement and Content Strategy - The company reported a total of 2.68 billion monthly active users in August, with over 70 million members [1] - The variety shows launched in Q3 2024 contributed to a 22% year-on-year increase in effective views, totaling 2.5 billion views [1] - Upcoming variety shows are expected to further enhance viewership in Q4 2024 [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth post-2024, with expected revenue growth rates of 3.0% in 2024, 8.2% in 2025, and 6.6% in 2026 [2][4] - The introduction of new content and the expansion of the Mango AI model are expected to drive future growth [1]