KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-28 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient earnings growth, with expectations to meet annual targets [1] - Revenue growth for the first three quarters slightly exceeded expectations, although cash collection performance was weaker due to timing discrepancies in reporting [1] - The gross margin remains stable, with short-term fluctuations in tax and additional charges [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 124,100 million - 2023A: 147,694 million (yoy growth: 19%) - 2024E: 172,185 million (yoy growth: 17%) - 2025E: 196,109 million (yoy growth: 14%) - 2026E: 219,736 million (yoy growth: 12%) [1][2] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 62,716 million - 2023A: 74,734 million (yoy growth: 19%) - 2024E: 87,287 million (yoy growth: 17%) - 2025E: 99,341 million (yoy growth: 14%) - 2026E: 111,007 million (yoy growth: 12%) [1][2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 59.49 - 2024E: 69.48 - 2025E: 79.08 - 2026E: 88.37 [3] - Cash Flow Per Share: - 2023A: 53.01 - 2024E: 54.74 - 2025E: 64.31 - 2026E: 74.54 [3] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 33% - 2024E: 33.9% - 2025E: 33.7% - 2026E: 33.2% [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: 26.2 - 2024E: 22.4 - 2025E: 19.7 - 2026E: 17.6 [3] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2023A: 9.1 - 2024E: 7.9 - 2025E: 7.0 - 2026E: 6.2 [3] Market Position and Trends - The company has maintained a stable delivery rhythm for its flagship products, with series liquor showing significant growth [1] - The overall performance in terms of sales collection is expected to stabilize throughout the year despite some quarterly fluctuations [1]