KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) EBSCN·2024-10-28 06:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 123.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.91%, and a net profit of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is on track to achieve its annual revenue growth target of 15% [2][4] - The company has a strong brand presence that helps it navigate industry cycles, and it emphasizes shareholder returns through cash dividend plans [4] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, up 13.23% year-on-year [1][2] - Sales revenue for Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q3 was 32.56 billion yuan and 6.25 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 16.32% and 13.14% year-on-year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 revenue from direct sales and wholesale channels was 18.26 billion yuan and 20.54 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 23.5% and 9.72% [2] - The direct sales channel accounted for 47% of total revenue in Q3, a relatively high historical level [2] Profitability Metrics - Q3 gross margin was 91.05%, a slight decrease of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 48.23%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow for Q3 was 7.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.23% year-on-year, primarily due to customer deposits and interbank placements [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has slightly lowered its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 86.35 billion yuan, 96.47 billion yuan, and 107.41 billion yuan, reflecting reductions of 2.5%, 4.9%, and 6.9% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]