天山铝业：氧化铝量利双增，业绩显著增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [5] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 20.796 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 88.36% to CNY 3.084 billion [2][3] - The significant profit increase is attributed to the rise in electrolytic aluminum profits and the growth in both volume and price of alumina [3] - The company has improved its financial metrics, with a 62.11% year-on-year increase in net cash flow from operating activities and a 38.41% increase in cash [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.010 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.35% but a year-on-year increase of 63.48% [2] - The average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by 6% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by 30% [3] - The production costs for both electrolytic aluminum and alumina remained stable, contributing to the profit growth [3] Profit Distribution - On October 25, 2024, the company announced a cash dividend of CNY 2 per 10 shares, amounting to 29.92% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 36.626 billion, CNY 39.210 billion, and CNY 41.418 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 4.003 billion, CNY 4.407 billion, and CNY 4.775 billion [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be CNY 0.86, CNY 0.95, and CNY 1.03 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.83, 8.93, and 8.24 [5]