YTL(000960) 平安证券·2024-10-28 07:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 showed a slight improvement, with total revenue of 10.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.58% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.60%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 484 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.10% [4][5] - The overall production of non-ferrous metals in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 277,100 tons, with tin production at 64,200 tons, copper at 105,000 tons, and zinc at 106,400 tons. The production of indium ingots exceeded the annual target [5] - The supply-demand dynamics for tin are improving, with a significant decrease in tin ore imports from Myanmar, down 31% year-on-year from January to September 2024. This is expected to keep the supply of tin concentrate tight [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising tin prices due to the scarcity of resources and increasing demand from sectors like semiconductors and consumer electronics [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 10.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.60%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 484 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.10% [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 29.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.18% [4] Production and Supply - The company produced 277,100 tons of non-ferrous metals in the first three quarters of 2024, with tin production at 64,200 tons, copper at 105,000 tons, and zinc at 106,400 tons. The production of indium ingots exceeded the annual target [5] - The supply of tin concentrate is expected to remain tight due to a significant decrease in imports from Myanmar, which is projected to impact future supply positively [5] Profitability and Valuation - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 was 11.63%, an increase of 3.36 percentage points year-on-year. However, the gross margin for Q3 decreased to 11.09% due to a 1.55% decline in tin prices [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 1.911 billion, 2.743 billion, and 2.896 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.4, 9.3, and 8.8 [6][11]