Wintrue Holding(SZ:002539) EBSCN·2024-10-28 07:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 declined due to delayed autumn fertilizer sales and fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly urea and potassium chloride [2][4]. - Despite the overall sales delay, the company achieved stable growth in phosphate fertilizer sales due to its optimized channel, brand, and supply chain strategies [2]. - The company is advancing upstream capacity construction for phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia, which will enhance its fertilizer production chain and improve efficiency [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 15.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 6.36% year-on-year [1]. - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.691 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.02% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.47%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 215 million yuan, up 5.93% year-on-year but down 10.40% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Product Pricing and Costs - The average price of domestic urea fell by 7.2% quarter-on-quarter, while potassium chloride rose by 5.5% [2]. - The average prices of the company's main products, including compound fertilizer and monoammonium phosphate, increased by 0.8% and 8.6% respectively in Q3 2024 [2]. Upstream Capacity Development - The company owns phosphate rock resources with a total reserve of approximately 549 million tons and is progressing with mining projects to enhance production capacity [3]. - The synthetic ammonia project at the company's base in Echeng is in substantial construction stages, which will help the company achieve self-sufficiency in nitrogen resources [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 853 million yuan (down 16.5%), 1.059 billion yuan (down 15.3%), and 1.278 billion yuan (down 10.5%) respectively [4].