Tesla(US:TSLA) First Shanghai Securities·2024-10-28 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla (TSLA) with a target price raised to $310.00, representing a 19.01% upside from the current price of $260.48 [2][28]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q3 revenue was slightly below expectations at $25.182 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 8%. However, gross margin and net profit exceeded expectations, with net profit reaching $2.167 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year [4][28]. - The automotive gross margin improved to 20.1%, with the Cybertruck's gross margin turning positive for the first time. The average manufacturing cost per vehicle dropped to a historical low of $35,100 [5][27]. - The energy business achieved a record gross margin of 30.5%, with significant growth in deployment expected in Q4, projecting over 100% year-over-year growth for the full year [6][28]. - The company anticipates continued growth in vehicle deliveries for 2024, with a projected increase of 20-30% in 2025, driven by the introduction of lower-priced models [27][28]. Financial Summary - Q3 total revenue was $25.182 billion, with automotive revenue at $20.016 billion and energy revenue at $2.376 billion. Operating profit was $2.717 billion, with an operating margin of 10.8%, the highest in the past year [4][28]. - The automotive business gross margin was 20.1%, while the non-GAAP automotive gross margin, excluding carbon credit revenue, was 17.1% [5][27]. - The energy segment's revenue grew by 52% year-over-year, with a deployment of 6.9 GWh of storage systems [6][28]. Production and Delivery - In Q3, Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles, a 6% increase year-over-year, and produced 469,796 vehicles, a 9% increase year-over-year [9][25]. - The company’s production capacity is projected to exceed 2.35 million vehicles annually, with significant contributions from the Shanghai factory [25][28]. Future Outlook - Tesla plans to launch new models in 2025, leveraging existing production lines to enhance efficiency without significant capital expenditure [27][28]. - The rollout of FSD v13 is imminent, with expectations of increased penetration and functionality [27][28].