万年青：Q3毛利率提升，看好公司受益浙赣粤运河需求弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 5.39 CNY per share [7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in net profit, with a 97.74% year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters of 2024, resulting in a net profit of 0.07 billion CNY [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the demand elasticity related to the construction of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Grand Canal, which is projected to increase regional cement demand by 8% once construction begins [3]. - The company's gross margin improved in Q3 2024, reaching 16.12%, up 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, despite an overall gross margin decline of 4.56 percentage points for the first three quarters [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 0.40 billion CNY, down 32.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.05 billion CNY, down 86.98% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 14.63%, with a net profit margin of 0.47%, reflecting a decrease of 6.96 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s total liabilities decreased to 6.61 billion CNY in 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.08% [10]. Future Projections - The forecast for the company's net profit is adjusted to 0.60 billion CNY for 2024, down from a previous estimate of 3.20 billion CNY, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.08 CNY [5][12]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 1.80 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.40 billion CNY in 2026 [5][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to implement its "Cement+" development strategy, expanding its product offerings and increasing its production capacity for ready-mixed concrete and aggregates [5]. - The company has a significant market share in Jiangxi, holding 22% as of September 2024, with 90% of its revenue generated from this region over the past five years [3].