Juewei Food (603517) 开源证券·2024-10-28 09:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue pressure, with a reported revenue of 5.01 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 11.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.5% to 440 million yuan [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from cost reductions, with a gross margin of 31.1% in Q3 2024, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [4] - The company is projected to see a gradual improvement in store operations and is likely to benefit from increased industry concentration [2][3] Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.67 billion yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, a decrease of 3.3% [2][3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 620 million yuan (-0.6%), 720 million yuan (-0.7%), and 810 million yuan (0.9%), representing year-on-year growth rates of 81.3%, 16.1%, and 11.2% respectively [2][3] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 31.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3 percentage points, attributed to lower prices of duck by-products [4] - The selling expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [4] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.394 billion yuan, 7.327 billion yuan, and 8.495 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -11.9%, 14.6%, and 15.9% [5] - The projected net profit for the same years is 624 million yuan, 724 million yuan, and 806 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 81.3%, 16.1%, and 11.2% [5]