顾家家居：外销改善，内销承压，以旧换新有望驱动回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.893 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 463 million yuan, an increase of 19.9% year-on-year [1] - Domestic sales continue to face pressure, with a significant decline in sofa sales and a double-digit drop in bed sales, although customized products show positive growth [1] - The company is focusing on external sales, which are expected to maintain double-digit growth, particularly in key markets such as North America and Europe [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 29.8%, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in sales structure and increased costs [1] - Cash flow is improving, with net operating cash flow reaching 923 million yuan, an increase of 281 million yuan year-on-year [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.83 billion yuan, 1.96 billion yuan, and 2.14 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.7X, 13.7X, and 12.6X [1][2] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 18.594 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [2] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 2.22 yuan for 2024, with a projected net asset return rate of 17.7% [2][3]