Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-28 10:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue performance, with cost control leading to profit elasticity. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 12.846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.73% [1] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will grow from 14.213 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.288 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 645 million yuan in 2023 to 1.392 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 13,202 million yuan - 2023A: 14,213 million yuan - 2024E: 14,854 million yuan - 2025E: 15,716 million yuan - 2026E: 16,288 million yuan - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 4.5% [2][3] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 352 million yuan - 2023A: 645 million yuan - 2024E: 967 million yuan - 2025E: 1,209 million yuan - 2026E: 1,392 million yuan - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 50% [2][3] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.23 yuan - 2024E: 0.34 yuan - 2025E: 0.43 yuan - 2026E: 0.49 yuan [2][3] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross Margin: 2024E is projected at 38.9% - Net Margin: 2024E is projected at 8.3% - Return on Equity (ROE): 2024E is projected at 6.1% [3] Market Position and Trends - The company has experienced a stable sales volume with a slight increase in beer sales, reaching 114.24 million kiloliters in Q3 2024, a year-on-year growth of 0.19% [1] - The average revenue per ton of beer is expected to grow to 4,202 yuan per kiloliter by Q3 2024, reflecting a 2.97% increase compared to H1 [1] - The report indicates that the company is benefiting from cost reductions and improved operational efficiency, which are expected to continue driving profit growth [1][2]