藏格矿业：2024年三季报点评：碳酸锂成本优势显著，

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue at 2.32 billion yuan, down 45% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.87 billion yuan, down 37% year-on-year [2] - Lithium production and sales met expectations, with Q1-Q3 2024 lithium carbonate production at 9,278 tons, up 13% year-on-year, and sales at 10,210 tons, up 32% year-on-year [2] - The copper segment maintains high profitability, with Q1-Q3 2024 copper production at 122,000 tons and net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% year-on-year increase in investment income [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 3.124 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.21% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 2.538 billion yuan, down 25.77% year-on-year [1][5] - The average diluted EPS for 2024 is estimated at 1.61 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 17.73 [1][5] Lithium Segment - Q3 2024 lithium carbonate production was 3,469 tons, with sales of 2,580 tons, reflecting a 30% decrease in sales compared to the previous quarter [2] - The average sales price for lithium carbonate in Q3 was 76,000 yuan per ton, down 25% quarter-on-quarter, while the average sales cost was 35,000 yuan per ton, down 17% [2] Potash Segment - Q3 2024 potash production was affected by maintenance, with production down 36% quarter-on-quarter and sales down 56% [3] - The average sales price for potash in Q3 was 2,415 yuan per ton, up 8% quarter-on-quarter, while the average sales cost increased by 48% to 1,629 yuan per ton [3] Copper Segment - Q3 2024 copper production increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 4.0 million yuan per ton [4] - The company anticipates that the second phase of the copper project will begin trial production in Q1 2026, increasing annual copper production capacity to 300,000-350,000 tons [4] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 73% year-on-year, with capital expenditure down 63% [4]