Fuanna(002327) 国信证券·2024-10-28 11:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][9]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.2% in the third quarter, with revenue reaching 580 million yuan. Despite this, the gross margin remained stable, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 55.5%. The net profit margin was pressured, decreasing by 6.5 percentage points to 13.0% due to an increase in sales expense ratio [1][7]. - Inventory levels increased by 12.4% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter to 890 million yuan, primarily due to rising raw material costs for down products. This led to an increase in inventory turnover days by 14 days to 253 days [1][7]. - The company maintained a relatively robust performance compared to the industry, with a year-to-date revenue decline of only 2.0% to 1.89 billion yuan, and a net profit decline of 15.3% to 290 million yuan [1][7]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there are expectations for improved profit margins due to lower inventory costs and a potential reduction in sales expense ratio as some costs were recognized in the third quarter [1][7]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are adjusted to 532 million yuan, 568 million yuan, and 603 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -7.1%, +6.8%, and +6.2% [2][8]. - The target price is maintained at 8.90 to 9.60 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 14 to 15 times for 2024 [1][7][8]. - Key financial metrics include a projected net profit margin of 13.6% for 2024, with an expected return on equity (ROE) of 13.6% [2][8].