Peacebird(603877) 国信证券·2024-10-28 11:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][9] Core Views - The company experienced a 14% decline in revenue in Q3 2024, with a net loss of 0.63 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.41 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][3] - The company is focusing on improving store quality and profitability by closing inefficient stores, resulting in a slowdown in the net store closure rate [1][3] - The company is attempting to develop new business formats and enhance brand image through flagship stores and product upgrades [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 13.9% to 1.4 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 0.63 billion yuan [1][3] - The gross margin remained stable, but the overall expense ratio increased by 5.3 percentage points due to higher sales and management expenses [1][3] - Inventory turnover days improved by 23 days to 217 days, with inventory value decreasing by 7.9% to 1.79 billion yuan [1][3] Store Operations - As of September 30, 2024, the total number of stores was 3,476, with a net closure of 62 stores in Q3 [1][3] - Revenue changes by channel showed a decline in direct sales (-18.4%) and online sales (-13.5%), while franchise sales decreased by 12.1% [1][3] - The company closed 80 direct stores and 175 franchise stores since the beginning of the year, focusing on enhancing profitability [1][3] Future Outlook - The company expects a potential recovery in performance as store adjustments slow down, with a forecasted net profit of 3.0 billion yuan for 2024, down from previous estimates [1][3] - The reasonable valuation range for the company has been adjusted to 13.8-14.2 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18.0-18.5x for 2025 [1][3]