GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 西南证券·2024-10-28 11:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gan Yuan Food (002991) with a target price of 70.20 RMB [1] Core Views - Gan Yuan Food achieved a revenue of 1.61 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 280 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.5% [2] - The company's product matrix is rich, with traditional products like mixed nuts and peas continuing to dominate consumer preference, while new products such as potato chips and peanuts show strong growth [2] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 36.8%, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by lower raw material prices and improved channel structure [3] - The company is actively adjusting its sales channels, with e-commerce and direct sales showing promising results, and overseas markets, particularly Vietnam, experiencing steady growth [2] Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.3%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, with Q3 net profit margin reaching 19.7% [3] - Gan Yuan Food's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 4.51 RMB, 5.39 RMB, and 6.42 RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16x, 13x, and 11x [1] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 19.53% in 2023 to 23.20% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [4] Channel and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on e-commerce channel development, with a dedicated team in place to optimize product offerings and prepare for the Q4 sales peak [2] - KA (Key Account) channels are transitioning from distributors to direct sales, showing better performance compared to the industry average [2] - Overseas expansion is centered on the Vietnamese market, which has shown consistent growth [2] Cost Management and Hedging - The company has implemented hedging strategies for key raw materials such as peanuts, sugar, and palm oil to mitigate price volatility risks [3] - Sales expenses increased by 1 percentage point year-on-year due to higher personnel costs and increased investment in online marketing channels [3] Future Outlook - Revenue growth is expected to remain strong, with forecasts of 22.51% growth in 2024, 19.86% in 2025, and 19.29% in 2026 [4] - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 420.54 million RMB in 2024 to 598.59 million RMB in 2026, driven by improved operational efficiency and market expansion [4]