特斯拉：24Q3业绩点评：利润超预期，三季度汽车交付量增长转正

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tesla's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations with significant profit growth and a positive turnaround in vehicle deliveries [1] - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was $25.182 billion, a year-over-year increase of 7.8%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.0% [1] - Cost optimization was evident, with gross profit recorded at $4.997 billion, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by 14.8% [1] - The automotive business generated revenue of $20.016 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.0%, slightly below expectations [1] - Energy business revenue reached $2.376 billion, a year-over-year increase of 52.41%, but below expectations by 7.1% [1] - Service and other business revenue was $2.790 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28.8%, exceeding expectations by 7.4% [1] - The gross margin for the automotive business improved to 20.1%, up 1.4 percentage points year-over-year [1] - Tesla's vehicle deliveries for Q3 reached 463,000 units, a year-over-year increase of 6.4%, marking the first positive growth in 2024 [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at $96.773 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 18.8% [2] - The projected net income for 2024 is $7.191 billion, reflecting a decrease of 52.1% year-over-year [2] - Gross margin is expected to be 18.3% in 2024, slightly up from 18.2% in 2023 [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.0% in 2024, down from 17.1% in 2023 [2] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at $2.50, a decrease from $3.12 in 2023 [2] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be $18.409 billion, an increase from $13.256 billion in 2023 [4] - Capital expenditures are expected to rise to $11.966 billion in 2024 from $8.898 billion in 2023 [4] - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2024 is projected to be $24.072 billion [4]