yyfp(600963) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-28 12:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with revenue of 1.581 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -46 million yuan, indicating a shift to loss [2]. - The decline in paper prices and asset impairment provisions have temporarily pressured the company's main business, with the average price of double-sided paper dropping to 5,664.06 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.29% year-on-year [2]. - The company is exploring carbon credit projects, which could enhance future earnings, with expected contributions of 1.88 and 3.80 million tons of CCER emissions reductions from two projects [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.155 billion yuan, down 22.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of -95 million yuan [2]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 4.95%, a slight decrease of 0.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling paper prices [2]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 125 million yuan, a significant increase of 1,263% year-on-year, attributed to increased cash receipts from a subsidiary [2][5]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to decline to 8.016 billion yuan in 2024, with a further increase to 10.992 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 37.1% [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve significantly, reaching 465 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 22 [3][5]. - The company anticipates cumulative signed forestry carbon credits of 50 million acres by the end of 2025, which could provide a substantial revenue stream [2].