ZMC(600216) 国金证券·2024-10-28 12:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Medicine (600216.SH) [1][6][7] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 7.113 billion, 850 million, and 846 million RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21%, 182%, and 227% [1] - The third quarter alone saw revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.707 billion, 534 million, and 529 million RMB, with year-on-year growth of 39.66%, 1738%, and 2564% respectively, exceeding expectations [1] - The increase in profitability is primarily attributed to the strong rise in vitamin prices, with gross margin increasing from 33.57% in the same period last year to 40.85% [1] - The company’s antibiotic segment is experiencing growth despite a slight decline in gross margin, with vancomycin already commercialized in the U.S. and expected to maintain its performance [1] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 71.13 billion RMB, with net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 8.50 billion and 8.46 billion RMB, respectively, marking significant increases compared to the previous year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters showed a steep increase, with quarterly margins of 32.92%, 37.98%, and 47.64% [1] Vitamin Segment - The revenue and profit growth is largely driven by the price increases of vitamins A and E, influenced by production cuts from international giants like BASF and DSM [1] - A fire incident at BASF's facility in Germany has further constrained supply, leading to a strong rebound in vitamin prices [1] Antibiotic Segment - The antibiotic manufacturing segment is focused on international expansion and volume growth, with a 5% revenue increase despite a 4.85 percentage point decline in gross margin [1] - The revenue from vancomycin in the U.S. reached 220 million RMB in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 28% year-on-year growth [1] Future Outlook - The report maintains revenue forecasts of 9.2 billion, 10 billion, and 10.8 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, while adjusting net profit forecasts upward by 34%, 13%, and 4% to 900 million, 1 billion, and 1.1 billion RMB [1]