YTL(000960) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-28 15:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in performance due to a year-on-year increase in tin prices, with a notable rise in net profit [4] - The company has exceeded production targets for the first three quarters of 2024 despite maintenance impacts [5] - The company's asset-liability structure continues to optimize, with a decrease in both short-term and long-term borrowings [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 29.213 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, primarily due to the deep processing segment being excluded from the report [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.283 billion yuan, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year, driven by a 15.9% rise in tin prices [4] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 10.438 billion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year but up 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 484 million yuan, reflecting an 18.6% year-on-year increase [4] Production and Cost Management - The company produced 64,200 tons of tin in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, achieving 75.5% of its annual production target [5] - The production of copper and zinc also saw increases of 5.3% and 28.8% year-on-year, respectively, with the company meeting 80.8% and 80.9% of its production targets [5] - The company experienced a significant rise in operating costs and management expenses in Q3 2024, with operating costs up 2.3% and management expenses up 39.0% quarter-on-quarter [4][6] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been adjusted to 1.847 billion, 2.330 billion, and 2.541 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31.2%, 26.1%, and 9.1% respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.12, 1.42, and 1.54 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.9, 11.0, and 10.1 times [4]