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金徽酒:2024年三季报点评:结构持续优化,费用管控良好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, with a net profit of 38 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 108.84% [2][3] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with over 85% of revenue coming from mid-to-high-end products, and strong growth in the provincial and out-of-province markets [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.52 percentage points to 61.13%, attributed to promotional adjustments and increased market competition [3] - The company maintained a net profit margin of 6.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s sales cash receipts reached 610 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.73% [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s strategy of "national layout, deepening the Northwest, and key breakthroughs" is gradually being implemented, with significant growth in the provincial and out-of-province markets [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 19% [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 412 million yuan for 2024, 499 million yuan for 2025, and 611 million yuan for 2026, with EPS projected at 0.81, 0.98, and 1.20 yuan respectively [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 25, 21, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]