pingmei coal(601666)2024-10-28 15:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pingmei Co Ltd (601666) [2] Core Views - Pingmei Co Ltd's Q3 2024 performance showed marginal improvement in volume reduction trends and stable overall performance due to cost optimization [2] - The company's coal business saw a slight increase in gross profit per ton despite a decrease in volume [3] - Pingmei Co Ltd's convertible bonds still have nearly half remaining unconverted, with potential for further expansion in coal-coking integration [4][5] - The company has a significant high-dividend feature, with a commitment to distribute at least 60% of annual distributable profits in cash [5] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 23.32 billion yuan, up 0.78% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.9% to 2.045 billion yuan [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 7.01 billion yuan, down 1.9% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 27.9% to 650 million yuan [2] - Basic EPS for Q1-Q3 2024 was 0.84 yuan/share, down 38.1% YoY [2] - Weighted average ROE for Q1-Q3 2024 was 7.1%, down 5.9 percentage points YoY [2] Coal Business Analysis - Q1-Q3 2024 raw coal production was 21.061 million tons, down 9% YoY [3] - Commercial coal sales volume was 20.08 million tons, down 13% YoY [3] - Average coal price per ton was 1,032.6 yuan, up 8% YoY [3] - Cost per ton of coal was 718 yuan, up 11% YoY [3] - Gross profit per ton of coal was 314.6 yuan, up 2% YoY [3] Q3 2024 Performance - Q3 2024 raw coal production was 6.853 million tons, down 10% QoQ and 11% YoY [3] - Commercial coal sales volume was 6.594 million tons, up 0.3% QoQ but down 13% YoY [3] - Average coal price per ton in Q3 was 918 yuan, down 10% QoQ but up 6% YoY [3] - Cost per ton of coal in Q3 was 608.4 yuan, down 14% QoQ but up 6% YoY [3] - Gross profit per ton of coal in Q3 was 309.9 yuan, down 0.5% QoQ but up 6% YoY [3] Future Projections - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.7/3.11/3.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of -33%/+15%/+10% [6] - 2024-2026 EPS is projected to be 1.09/1.26/1.38 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9/8/7 [6] - 2024-2026 ROE is projected to be 10%/11%/11% [6] - 2024-2026 revenue is projected to be 29.133/30.554/31.509 billion yuan, with growth rates of -8%/+5%/+3% [7] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 10.17 yuan [3] - 52-week price range: 7.84-15.05 yuan [3] - Total market capitalization: 25.172 billion yuan [3] - Circulating market capitalization: 25.113 billion yuan [3] - Average daily trading volume: 242.42 million yuan [3]