Zelgen(688266) 开源证券·2024-10-28 15:00Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - Q3 revenue showed steady sequential growth, with a year-on-year increase of 130.67% [1] - The company's revenue for Q1-3 2024 reached 3.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.16% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 was -0.31 billion yuan, with a sequential growth of 8.28% [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.06/11.00/18.95 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.9%/81.4%/72.4% [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PS ratio of 29.0/16.0/9.3 times for 2024-2026 [1] Product and Market Expansion - The company has actively promoted the entry of its product, Donafenib, into hospitals and pharmacies, covering 1,081 hospitals and 934 pharmacies by the end of June 2024 [3] - The recombinant human thrombin product has been authorized to Yuanda Life Sciences, with the company receiving an exclusive market promotion fee of 340 million yuan in H1 2024 [3] Pipeline Progress - The late-stage pipeline is progressing steadily, with the flagship product, Gicartinib, having submitted an NDA for myelofibrosis [4] - The Phase III clinical trial for severe alopecia areata has reached the 24-week primary efficacy endpoint, with NDA submission expected after 52-week data readout [4] - The Phase II clinical study for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis has achieved positive results [4] - The early-stage pipeline, ZG006 (CD3×DLL3×DLL3 trispecific antibody), showed an ORR of 66.7% and a DCR of 88.9% in I/II phase clinical studies for advanced small cell lung cancer or neuroendocrine carcinoma [4] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 606/1,100/1,895 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.9%/81.4%/72.4% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -457/-279/-152 million yuan in 2024-2026, with a significant turnaround to 175 million yuan in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 93.0% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to be -0.57/0.01/0.66 yuan for 2024-2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PS ratio of 29.0/16.0/9.3 times for 2024-2026 [1] - The PB ratio is expected to be 11.9/11.8/10.6 times for 2024-2026 [5]