MTC(002429) 华创证券·2024-10-28 17:10Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 6.5 RMB, representing a 23% upside from the current price of 5.29 RMB [1] Core Views - Revenue growth remains strong, driven by TV ODM shipments and LED industry growth [1] - Non-core business adjustments and exchange rate fluctuations have impacted profitability [1] - Mini LED cost reduction and volume expansion are expected to drive future profit growth [1] Financial Performance - 24Q1-Q3 revenue reached 16.16 billion RMB, up 27.4% YoY, with net profit of 1.37 billion RMB, up 7.9% YoY [1] - 24Q3 revenue was 6.64 billion RMB, up 34.2% YoY, but net profit declined 14.1% YoY to 460 million RMB [1] - 24Q3 gross margin was 14.4%, down 4.3 percentage points YoY, while operating expense ratio improved to 5.7%, down 1.05 percentage points YoY [1] Business Highlights - TV ODM shipments in 24Q3 reached 4.4 million units, up over 40% YoY, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 6% [1] - LED business, particularly Mini/Micro LED, continues to grow, with increasing shipments of backlight modules and COB displays [1] - The company is a top-tier global TV ODM manufacturer with a vertically integrated LED industry chain, providing a competitive moat [1] Future Outlook - Mini LED cost reduction and volume expansion are expected to drive the company's second growth curve [1] - LED chip and packaging business structure optimization, along with vertical industry chain synergy, will support future growth [1] Valuation and Forecast - Adjusted 24-26 EPS forecasts to 0.42/0.53/0.63 RMB (previously 0.48/0.59/0.70 RMB), with corresponding PE ratios of 13/10/8x [1] - DCF valuation supports the target price of 6.5 RMB, implying a 24 PE of 15x [1]